Voters in South Carolina and Nevada went to the polls on Saturday as the presidential nomination contests continue.
With a large military community and a sizeable religious conservative population, South Carolina has been a kingmaker in plenty of recent Republican presidential battles. Attacks came in on all sides and the state’s leading Republican officials took sides in the primary. After his big win in New Hampshire, Donald Trump led the polls, often by double digits. The battle for second place looked close between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio while the buzz was starting to grow that Jeb Bush, despite bringing out his brother George W. Bush on the campaign trail in South Carolina, was in trouble. Following his second place finish in New Hampshire, John Kasich focused on other states while Ben Carson lagged in the polls, not making much of an impression in South Carolina despite the large number of religious conservatives voting in the primary.
On the Democratic side, over in the Nevada caucus, Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls shrank considerably in the final days of the campaign. Bernie Sanders had the wind at his back and everything showed the Silver State would be close. Buzz began to grow that Clinton was in trouble in Nevada and she had to spend more time and money there than her campaign had first thought.
Here’s a look at some of the winners and losers on Saturday.
Winners
Hillary Clinton. After Bernie Sanders’ big showing in New Hampshire, Clinton needed a win in Nevada. While her 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent margin over Sanders wasn’t particularly impressive, Clinton got the victory she needed. A loss would have led to another week of bad publicity and an increasingly nervous Democratic establishment. Clinton also benefited from reports that her campaign was in crisis mode, leading the media to mull over the possibility that she would lose Nevada. Not a great win but Clinton will take it. Now the race heads to South Carolina which should be favorable territory for the former First Lady.
Henry McMaster. It’s easy to overlook the lieutenant governor of South Carolina, especially as other South Carolina Republicans like Trey Gowdy, Lindsey Graham, Nikki Haley, Mark Sanford, Tim Scott and Joe Wilson get far more attention from the media. But McMaster put his chips on Trump while those other South Carolina Republicans backed different candidates. McMaster had no problem campaigning with Trump and he was able to claim more of the spotlight in the Palmetto State. Backing Trump was a gamble for McMaster but it paid off for him on Saturday.
Marco Rubio. A nice bounce back for Rubio after his lousy fifth place showing in New Hampshire. He ran close to Cruz, battling him for second most of Saturday night, and eventually taking the silver. The Florida senator had the support of some big name South Carolina Republicans including Trey Gowdy, Nikki Haley and Tim Scott and that helped him almost overtake Cruz. Rubio also had great news coming out of South Carolina as Jeb Bush bowed out. With his fellow Florida Republican now out of the race, Rubio should benefit and he had warm words for Bush, calling him the “greatest governor in the history of Florida" in his speech on Saturday night. A good night for Rubio, especially after his stumble in New Hampshire.
Donald Trump. After a narrow loss in Iowa, Trump bounced back to win in New Hampshire and now South Carolina. Momentum is clearly on Trump’s side and now the race heads to Nevada and Super Tuesday. With its large military population and religious conservatives, South Carolina wasn’t exactly natural territory for Trump, especially after he hammered George W. Bush’s handling of the Iraq War and even questioning that president’s responsibility for 9/11. But Trump scored another big win and his opposition remains split as Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio survived South Carolina. A good night for Trump and his odds of getting the Republican nomination are increasing.
Losers
Jeb and George W. Bush. Lee Atwater set up the South Carolina primary to help George H.W. Bush win the Republican nomination back in 1988. George W. Bush relied heavily on South Carolina to hold off John McCain in 2000. But Jeb Bush failed badly in the Palmetto State despite featuring his brother on the campaign trail. The former Florida governor spent some recent days dealing with reports about donors jumping off the bandwagon and even whispers that he will start freezing pay for staffers. The state that helped the Bush dynasty in years gone by turned against it on Saturday and the former Florida governor bowed out after his poor showing.
Ben Carson. Almost 75 percent of South Carolina Republican primary voters said they were evangelical or born-again Christians. That should have benefited Carson who always made his faith and character centerpieces of his campaign. But after a fourth place showing in Iowa and blowing off New Hampshire, Carson became a non-factor in the race, far below where he had been in the late summer and early fall when he polled well. If Carson couldn’t deliver in South Carolina, it’s a fair question to ask where he can do well, especially as Super Tuesday looms ahead. To be sure, Republicans like and admire Carson but they don’t want him in the White House. Despite that, Carson insisted Saturday night he will stay in the contest.
Ted Cruz. The Texas senator’s team was saying they would get “strong second” in South Carolina. It didn’t happen. In a state which appeared tailor-made for him, Cruz was edged out by Marco Rubio for the silver by around 1,000 votes. With three quarters of Republican primary votes in South Carolina being evangelical Christians, Cruz should have done better. But Cruz lost out to Trump with this group of voters even as the Texas senator went after the frontrunner, hitting him for his past support of abortion. Some prominent South Carolina Republicans--Joe Wilson, Mark Sanford--backed Cruz but they did not help him take second. In his speech on Saturday night, Cruz tried to spin it as a victory but--despite his insistence that he was defying expectations--he should have done better in the Palmetto State. Cruz has to like his chances in some of the primaries across the South in the coming days but a third place finish in South Carolina did not help his odds of catching Trump. At the very least, Cruz’s argument that it will be a two-man race between him and Trump was shattered on Saturday.
Lindsey Graham. Sure the senior senator from South Carolina did well in the undercard debates during his brief presidential bid. But Graham threw his support to Jeb Bush and he didn’t deliver in his home state. Conservatives and tea party supporters would love to take Graham down in the primary but he has proven pretty agile in beating back their challenges. Still, backing Bush was a clear misstep for Graham and some of his opponents in the GOP will think he is losing his grip back home in the Palmetto State.
Bernie Sanders. At the start of the month, few would have predicted Sanders would have only lost Nevada to Hillary Clinton by 4 percent. But after his win in New Hampshire, Sanders had some major momentum and there were reports that the Clinton team was panicking in Nevada. That helped boost expectations for Sanders in the final days before Nevada and allowed Clinton to claim a bigger win than she actually garnered. Sanders now has to turn his attention to South Carolina where he will be an underdog against Clinton. This was not a fatal loss for Sanders by any means but Nevada offered a far better opportunity for Sanders to pull off an upset and he wasn’t able to achieve it.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
