Win or lose in Pasadena on New Year's Day, quarterback Jameis Winston should rethink declaring his eligibility for the 2015 NFL draft.
He should stay another year at Florida State University.He has work to do.
I know, I know. Staying at FSU for a third year probably isn't going to happen. And, frankly, there's no point in being in Tallahassee for five more minutes if he isn't going to behave himself.
Allow me to explain my logic -- and preface it by assuring you that I condone none of Jameis Winston's felonious or vulgar behavior during the past two years. Quite the opposite. On the other hand, I also believe, wherever possible, in encouraging the opportunity for redemption -- or change -- in any man.
If Jameis yields now to the lure of the NFL -- bright lights, big money, the whole package -- yes, he will be selected early; but the chain of misdeeds he forged off the field at FSU will precede him. And it will affect all kinds of things -- none, I fear, positive.
There isn't a pro scout in the country who isn't familiar with the rape allegation, the shoplifting incident, the public display of profanity, and just the manner in which Jameis has been coddled by school officials and the law enforcement community in Tallahassee.
Unfortunately, NFL players like Michael Vick, Aaron Hernandez and Ray Rice set the bar. They showed behavior outside the lines is a gamble. When assessing a player's value, more and more NFL teams are looking at personal conduct like a credit score. Right now Jameis' credit score is probably in the low 600s.
The tangible consequence equals millions of dollars when a players stock drops. Court appearances, jail time, probation, suspensions for violating the NFLs Personal Conduct Policy all tarnish the image of the team and the league. That's why scouts have said they're leery of Winston, and why he was so easy to eliminate from this year's Heisman Trophy finalists list.
My fear is, what if a team like the New York Jets or Washington Redskins drafts Jameis in 2015? Remember, to most of the world the rape allegations are unresolved. I know the fans and the press in those cities. They'll dog his every move. First step out of line -- even if it's only harmless out of line, a trip to a nightclub, for instance -- and they'll eat him for breakfast.He will have to be some kind of spectacular in his rookie year to overcome it.
But if Jameis stays at Florida State, he has a chance of turning his life around. Of breaking the chain. If -- and here's the caveat -- if he keeps his nose clean, uses the year to rehabilitate his scarred reputation and works on building character, he might actually grow up. He might discover, like it or not, he is a role model, he does have a responsibility to the people who believe in him and there is more to leadership than pumping up the team on Game Day.
Fans, even the ones in big cities, can be forgiving if he shows them something.
If he stays, he also gets a chance to go into the next draft with better stats. Yes, the Seminoles were undefeated again, but last year's Heisman Trophy winner had a mediocre first half in most of his games in 2014 and threw 17 picks, including 11 in his last six games. Another year, another chance to compete for a second Heisman, another chance to enter the draft with an all-around improved character credit score.
And once he leaves school, it becomes more difficult to negotiate a contract to play two sports. Right now he's got a legitimate shot at that. Don't forget, he served as the Seminoles' closer last season, allowing just one run and six hits in 13 innings. Baseball America pegged Jameis, who was drafted in the 15th round out of high school, as a possible first-round pick as both a pitcher and an outfielder if he just concentrated on baseball.
One last point. Jameis doesn't get by in school just on football and baseball. He is a bright fellow, I'm told. There is no good reason for him to rush out the door unless the school has its toe behind him.
I hope, win or lose in Thursday's Rose Bowl, Jameis elects to stay at Florida State and work on his other game. The one off the field. I'm betting he has gifts he hasn't yet discovered. Barring injury, the professional career will still be there in 2016, and all the better for a new attitude toward his responsibilities and some serious character construction.
Reach Nancy Smith at nsmith@sunshinestatenews.com or at 228-282-2423. Twitter: @NancyLBSmith
