This weeknational media reports noted that U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla, is increasingly looking at challenging Gov. Rick Scott in 2014. Thats bad news for the Republican incumbent. More so than other Democratic possibilities looking at running next year -- namely, former Gov. Charlie Crist, former state CFO Alex Sink whom Scott beat in 2010, and former Democratic Senate Leader Nan Rich -- Nelson would pose problems for the governor.
Nelson has always had one foot in Tallahassee and the other in the Beltway. He served in the Legislature back in the 1970s, ran for governor in 1990 in his only real electoral setback when Lawton Chiles buried him in the primary, and served as state treasurer for six years.
While never getting quite the same stature as fellow Democrats Chiles or Bob Graham, Nelson has been remarkably successful even as Republicans have continually won statewide office in Florida. Nelson is currently the only statewide elected Democrat in Florida and looking at his victory over Republican challenger Connie Mack in 2012 shows why he is a major threat to defeat Scott.
Republicans and conservatives are grumbling now that Mack was an underwhelming candidate who coasted through a primary and relied on his fathers name, leaving him unprepared for a general election. Whats forgotten is national Republicans and conservatives targeted Nelson as they looked to pick up the Senate in 2012 and showcased Mack. A favorite of Sean Hannity from Fox News and the Conservative Political Action Conference, Mack had more than his share of chances to shine in the political limelight. As a close ally of Mitt Romney, Macks team also worked closely with the Republican presidential campaign effort.
It didnt matter. While Barack Obama edged Romney to win Floridas Electoral College votes, Nelson routed Mack in a landslide, taking 55 percent while the Republican trailed badly with 42 percent. As he has shown throughout his political career, Nelson does well in places that no other Democrat in Florida can compete.
Take Brevard County on the Space Coast where Republicans generally do well. Scott took 54.4 percent of Brevard County in 2010 while Sink pulled a mere 41.2 percent. Scotts 26,000 vote edge in Brevard County helped lead to him winning the closest gubernatorial election in Floridas history.
Nelson flipped Brevard around in 2012 despite Romney running away there. While Romney took 55.8 percent of Brevard County voters, Nelson took 51 percent, beating Mack, who followed with 45.6 percent, by around 15,000 votes.
Even more concerning for Republicans is how Nelson did in Duval County, traditionally a bastion of GOP support in Florida. Scott did well there in 2010, beating Sink by almost 6 percent in and around Jacksonville. Nelson crushed Mack in Duval County, beating him by 8 percent.
Marion County is usually fertile territory for Republicans. Scott routed Sink there by almost 14 percent in 2010. Nelson turned the county blue in 2012, beating Mack by 0.7 percent.
This trend continues as you look across the state. Scott beat Sink by 8 percent in Pasco County and an impressive 11 percent in Polk County. Nelson easily took those counties against Mack, winning Pasco by 11.5 percent and Polk by 8 percent. Scott won Sarasota County by 4.5 percent in 2010, the same margin that Nelson carried it in 2012. Nelson bested Mack in populous Seminole County by 8 percent, a county that Scott carried by almost 7 percent in 2010. Scott edged Sink by 2 percent to win Volusia County in 2010 while Nelson crushed Mack there by 13 percent. In 2012, Nelson carried other counties all across the state that Scott won in 2010 -- Flagler, Hamilton, Hendry, Hernando, Monroe and Okeechobee. In counties that Scott and Mack took, Nelson generally did better than Sink.
Nelson also outperformed his fellow Democrats in some of the most populous counties in the state, which puts him in good shape if he challenges Scott next year. Sink took 64.6 percent of the vote in Broward County in 2010 but Nelson pulled even better there in 2012, taking 69.6 percent against Mack. Scott kept it close against Sink in Hillsborough County back in 2010, losing by 4 percent and around 10,500 votes. Nelson destroyed Mack there, beating the Republican by more than 20 percent and adding 105,000 more votes to his margin of victory. Sink took Miami-Dade by 14 percent over Scott in 2010 -- but Nelson did even better in 2012, destroying Mack by 28 percent. Sink carried Orange County by 11 percent over Scott in 2010 while Nelson walloped Mack in that key area, routing the Republican by 29 percent.
With Scott struggling in the polls and Nelson having 40 years of interacting with voters, Floridas senior senator is, on paper, easily the strongest Democratic candidate who could challenge Scott. He is not marred by switching parties and positions the way Crist is. Some Democrats are still not happy with Sink for an uninspiring 2010 campaign. Rich is basically unknown outside her old district and has shown little traction despite being in the race for a year now.
In short, Nelson is easily the Democrats best hope for defeating Scott. While generally seen as bland, which has helped prevent him from achieving the stature of his old rival Chiles or Bob Graham, Nelson is also seen as a centrist. This puts him in play in areas where no other Democrats can do well. If a Democrat beats out or comes close to edging Scott in Duval, Marion or Polk counties, the governor is left with little in the way of a path to victory. Nelson has proven he can win there and in other parts of the state Republicans usually take for granted. If Nelson enters the race, Scotts road to re-election, already challenging against the likes of Crist and Sink, will prove even tougher.
UPDATE: On Friday, Nelson closed the door on running against Scott. For more information, go here.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.
