The White House interjected itself in Florida’s battle over Medicaid expansion, releasing a new report Thursday morning detailing both the projected economic and health impacts Medicaid expansion would have on the state.
Unsurprisingly, the White House Council of Economic Advisers’ report indicates Florida’s future is bright if the state decides to expand Medicaid.
“This evidence leaves no doubt that the consequences of states’ decisions are far-reaching, with major implications for the health of their citizens and their economies,” reads the report.
According to CEA estimates, Florida would see a cut of $790 million in uncompensated care in 2016 under Medicaid expansion. It also estimates 750,000 more people with insurance coverage in 2016 if the state decides to expand Medicaid, the second-highest number of increased enrollees behind Texas.
The report also says Floridians would have better access to certain medical services like cholesterol checks and pap smears. And not as many patients would feel the blues -- the report also says around 69,000 fewer Floridians would suffer from depression if the state expands Medicaid.
The CEA relied upon published estimates from the Urban Institute’s Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model (HIPSM), which provide state-by-state estimates of how each state’s decision about whether to expand Medicaid would affect the number of uninsured individuals in that state.
To quantify how expanding Medicaid would improve patient access to medical care, CEA’s analysis used estimates from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment, a two-year study in which Oregonians were randomly assigned to receive Medicaid or remain uninsured. The study found patients who had insurance actually used the emergency room more often, but the study did not specifically address whether or not patients’ health improved over the two-year period.
In order to get estimates for Florida, the relevant point estimates were simply multiplied by the HIPSM estimates of the number of individuals who would gain coverage in the state if Florida expanded Medicaid.
The report does say it's possible the numbers could be slightly different for larger expansions.
But should Florida decide not to expand Medicaid -- a position widely favored by both Gov. Rick Scott and the Florida House -- the report warns the state could miss out on a significant chunk of federal funding over the years, to the tune of nearly a $6 billion loss.
“The administration is willing to work with any state interested in expanding Medicaid," said Vikki Wachino, acting director, Center for Medicaid and CHIP Services. “We are committed to supporting state flexibility and working with states on innovative solutions that expand Medicaid to low-income individuals in accordance with the law’s goals and consumer protections, while securing quality, affordable health coverage and growing a state’s economy.”
The issue of whether Florida will expand Medicaid has become perhaps the most contentious issue during this year’s legislative session. Scott and the House have both made it clear they don’t intend to expand Medicaid in any form, while the Senate has edged increasingly closer to accepting the expansion under its Federal Health Insurance Exchange proposal, passing a bill supporting the proposal Wednesday.
Under the FHIX plan, the state would pay $5 billion to the federal government over the next 10 years. Recipients would be allowed to stay on the federal health-care plan rather than opting into the state insurance plan and could receive premium credit to shop around for federal health care plans starting Jan. 1.
Reach Tampa-based reporter Allison Nielsen by email at allison@sunshinestatenews.com or follow her on Twitter: @AllisonNielsen.
