Florida, the largest swing state on the electoral map, will be on center stage this week as Democrats and Republicans vote in the presidential primaries. Sunshine State News continues "What Candidates Have at Stake in Florida,” a look at what the remaining candidates have on the line in Tuesday’s primary. The series continues to look at the Republican presidential hopefuls. We hope readers join us as we look at “What Candidates Have at Stake in Florida” as the presidential candidates make their last pushes before the primary.
The stakes don’t come any higher for Marco Rubio than what he faces in the Florida primary on Tuesday.
Rubio is in second place in polls across Florida. The question is how far is he behind Donald Trump, since some polls show him down by 20 percent while others have it in the 6-8 percent range. For his part, Rubio and his team are expressing confidence they can keep the Sunshine State in their column.
Even while Jeb Bush and most of the GOP leadership that supported him are doing little for him, Rubio is relying on a strange group of national Republicans to help him get across the finish line. Rick Santorum went to bat for Rubio in Jacksonville last week. Mia Love was at Rubio’s side this weekend. It’s telling how some members of the Bush camp remain bitter over what they see as Rubio’s betrayal of the former governor and have done little to help him in the Sunshine State.
Of course, Rubio needs to beat out Trump if he wants to keep his faint dreams of winning the Republican presidential nomination alive. The GOP establishment that wants to keep Trump from being the nominee also wants to see a Rubio win in the Sunshine State.
Even outside the presidential race, Rubio needs a good showing on his home turf to keep his political future alive. Only 44, Rubio has decided to forego a second term in the Senate and will be out of office unless he ends up on the Republican ticket or working for the 45th president. There’s more than a little buzz that Rubio could end up trying to return to Tallahassee in 2018 by running for governor though Adam Putnam and other Republicans would have something to say about that. Regardless of what he does, losing by 20 percent to Trump would damage Rubio far down the road.
Trying to avoid that fate, Rubio seems to be relying on turning out his South Florida base and trying to beat out Trump in key areas along I-10. Rubio’s had events in Pensacola and along the First Coast where he hopes his support for a strong military and an active foreign policy will win him points with Republican primary voters.
Rubio has his blindspots to be sure and he’s probably not in as strong shape with Florida Republicans as he thought before entering the race. Even outside his role with the “Gang of Eight” on immigration reform, Rubio is not exactly a proven commodity with Republicans in the Sunshine State. While he won applause for beating Charlie Crist in 2010, that was Rubio’s only time on the statewide ballot. Opponents often trash Rubio’s attendance record in the Senate and much of his focus in Washington has been international issues which are far less important to most Floridians.
Trump has shown a tendency to underperform from the polls but even that gives Rubio only some narrow hopes on Tuesday. If the polls showing Trump ahead by a touchdown are correct, Rubio has a chance, especially if old Bush supporters or those thinking of casting votes for John Kasich decide to back him. If the polls showing Trump ahead by 20 percent or more are correct, Rubio is not only headed to a loss but a humiliating one in his own backyard.
No matter what the polls say, Rubio has a lot on the line. A narrow loss to Trump wouldn’t be fatal for his future plans though it would knock Rubio out of the contest. A win in Florida, no matter how small, allows Rubio to continue his bid. Losing in a blowout to Trump--or a third place finish behind Ted Cruz--would set Rubio back badly on his home turf.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
