Florida, the largest swing state on the electoral map, will be on center stage next week as Democrats and Republicans vote in the presidential primaries. In the coming days, Sunshine State News will present “What Candidate Have at Stake in Florida,” a look at what the remaining candidates have on the line in next Tuesday’s primary.
The series now turns to Hillary Clinton as the Democratic frontrunner looks to build on her win in Florida over Barack Obama in 2008 before turning to the Republicans starting on Friday. We hope readers join us as we look at “What Candidates Have at Stake in Florida” as the presidential candidates make their last pushes before the primary.
Hillary Clinton’s a heavy favorite to win Florida on Tuesday and polls show her blowing out Bernie Sanders in the Sunshine State.
Most of the Democratic establishment in Florida are behind Clinton and voters outside the Democratic ranks, who played a pivotal role in elevating Sanders in New Hampshire and Michigan, won’t be a factor. But Sanders’ upset win in Michigan earlier this week shows Clinton can underperform the polls. Despite that, Clinton should easily keep Florida, where she beat out Barack Obama eight years ago, in her column.
After his Michigan win, Sanders has other targets on his mind on Tuesday, namely Ohio and Missouri. Clinton will try to strangle whatever momentum Sanders picked up after Michigan in those states while counting on Florida, Illinois and North Carolina to come out for her on Tuesday.
Clinton’s team is pulling out all the stops in Florida, looking to ensure a big win. Chelsea Clinton will be crossing the state this week trying to rally support for her mother. Plenty of Democratic officials are pounding the drums in their districts across Florida, trying to bring supporters out to the polls.
With 214 delegates at stake, Clinton should reel in most of them on Tuesday. The question remains how many delegates she needs to claim in the Sunshine State where they’re awarded on a proportional basis. As of Wednesday, FiveThirtyEight insists Clinton needs 116 of the Florida delegates. The Cook Political Report set the bar far lower, saying she only needs 94, a number she is almost certain to eclipse in Florida on Tuesday night.
While she is favored to beat Sanders, Clinton needs an impressive victory after losing to him in Michigan earlier this week. Florida remains the largest swing state in the general election of course but the stakes are even higher than just the White House. Democrats are increasingly optimistic that they can make gains on the Republican majority in the U.S. Senate and there’s even talk about flipping it. That task becomes far easier if Democrats can take the seat currently held by Marco Rubio. After the various rounds of redistricting, Democrats are also hopeful they can make inroads in the U.S. House by winning a few newly drawn seats that now look more favorable to them and cut into the GOP majority in the state Senate.
Democrats hope, of course, that having Donald Trump or Ted Cruz on the top of the Republican ticket will help them down the ballot. But they can’t count on just that.
Clinton has to show she can win and provide a little bit of coattails and Florida might be a good test case scenario for her. The Democratic electorate seems tailor made for Clinton over Sanders. She has run strong with African-Americans though, as she learned in Michigan, she does better with those in the South than other parts of the country. Clinton also does well with seniors, a major part of any Democratic primary electorate in the Sunshine State.
This should ensure a big win for Clinton over Sanders in Florida. Of course, she was supposed to pop the corks after Michigan and that simply didn’t happen.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
