Florida, the largest swing state on the electoral map, will be on center stage next week as Democrats and Republicans vote in the presidential primaries. In the coming days, Sunshine State News will present “What Candidate Have at Stake in Florida,” a look at what the remaining candidates have on the line in next Tuesday’s primary. The series continues to look at the Republican presidential hopefuls. We hope readers join us as we look at “What Candidates Have at Stake in Florida” as the presidential candidates make their last pushes before the primary.
Ted Cruz has a bit of a dilemma heading into Tuesday. The Texas senator has been pretty adamant in recent days that he is the only Republican candidate who can block Donald Trump’s path to the Republican nomination. But if Trump beats Marco Rubio in Florida and John Kasich in Ohio, Cruz, who is already behind in the delegate count, will have a hard time catching him.
After Rubio’s poor showings in recent contests, Cruz made noise about going into the Sunshine State to knock him out of the race. Cruz has certainly had some good moments, unveiling Carly Fiorina’s endorsement at an event in Miami on Wednesday and announcing Mike Lee’s support on Thursday, right before the latest debate. Cruz also held an event in Orlando with Fiorina and Sean Hannity on Friday, stressing his religious conservatism.
Cruz has kept a lower profile in North Florida where he should have been a natural fit with his social and religious conservatism. But Trump walloped Cruz in the parts of Alabama and Georgia that are covered by the Pensacola, Tallahassee and Jacksonville media markets, leading the Texas senator to concentrate on other parts of the Sunshine State. Not a bad tactic since most of Cruz’s wins, outside of Texas, have been rural parts of the Heartland like Iowa and Kansas. From South Carolina to Louisiana, Trump has been beating Cruz across the South and North Florida shouldn’t be any different on that front.
While some of the polls show Cruz nearing Rubio for second place in Florida, most of them have him squarely in third though he does have his pockets of support throughout the state. Cruz also has a pretty dedicated organization which should help him in Florida, even if he doesn’t have much of a chance of claiming the 99 delegates on the line in the Sunshine State.
Cruz has other fish to fry on Tuesday--namely North Carolina and Missouri--but his team will be watching the results from Florida and Ohio with more than a little interest. Based on Thursday’s debate, Cruz is hoping Trump wins both states, sending Rubio and Kasich to the sidelines. Cruz is calculating that he can catch up in a one on one race as supporters of the failed candidates rally behind him in order to stop Trump. But that’s a major gamble since Trump, who is already ahead by around 100 delegates, will be able to increase his lead. Nor does the electoral map particularly favor Cruz come April as states like New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania have their say.
With a third place finish likely in Florida on Tuesday, Cruz will be content to focus on other states this weekend and watch the results come in--and plan accordingly for a two man race against Trump or see if either Rubio or Kasich can survive.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
