Congress returns this week from its two-week recess facing several key decisions. These decisions will affect the summer and fall sessions leading up to the highly anticipated November 2010 elections.
The first of these major decisions will be whether to include in the annual budget resolution any reconciliation wording that might instruct Congress to pass immigration, global warming and/or additional health-care changes. The second will be how long to plan for Senate confirmation of the soon-to-be-nominated Supreme Court justice to replace the retiring Justice John Paul Stevens. Both of these decisions could have major ramifications in the years to come.
When readers think of the budget process and reconciliation, I am sure they remember the magic that reconciliation brings to the legislative process. This majority-vote requirement looks really good to any Democratic leader wanting victory, now that the Senate has lost its filibuster-proof Democratic membership. However, this writer believes the retirement of Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., will cause the leaders on Capitol Hill to rethink their timing on much of their agenda planned for the remainder of the second session of the 111th Congress.
I believe Congressman Stupaks unexpected announcement that he will not seek reelection in November will provoke many Democratic members of Congress to become gun-shy when it comes to casting politically sensitive, tough votes. If my predictions are correct, these members will very shortly begin to whine to their leaders about not wanting to cast any votes that will put them at odds with their constituents.
They will threaten to band together with other like-minded incumbents and boycott the votes, or better yet, vote against the particular issue. They will ask that no highly charged political issues be considered before the elections. This will leave the House and Senate Democratic leadership, as well as President Barack Obama, in a real dilemma since they believe their Democratic membership in Congress is at the highest level that they will enjoy for some time to come.
With this in mind, don't be surprised if you begin to hear rumblings about a lame-duck session in Congress. The Democratic leadership, in conjunction with the president, could easily announce that given the large amount of work that needs to be done and the unexpected retirement of Justice Stevens, as well as the need for the Senate to fully consider and debate this nomination, that a lame-duck session is inevitable. This will allow the Democratic leaders to wait on many controversial votes until after the November elections but before they lose the majorities needed to pass much of the president's agenda.
To give you an idea on how this session could play out, reconciliation instructions could be exercised during this winter session, along with the majority of the appropriations bills. If this lame-duck session does come to fruition, don't be surprised if this November-early December session isn't one of the most ambitious lame-duck sessions in Congressional history. Stay tuned for more news later this week.
Elizabeth B. Letchworth is a retired, four-times-elected United States Senate secretary for the Majority and Minority. She is the founder of GradeGov.com.
