After the Florida Legislature gets through this session, and does whatever it must to fill a $3 billion budget gap, what then?
Lawmakers may congratulate themselves on not raising taxes, but several big initiatives will be left undone or unrealized.
Sen. Joe Negron's effort to re-engineer the Medicaid program into a consumer-based insurance model won't happen until federal waivers are obtained, a process that can take months or years.
Sen. Don Gaetz's plentiful ideas for streamlining and overhauling the public sector may not bear fruit until 2011 or later.
Outgoing House Speaker Larry Cretul's vision of "high-performance government" might not become clear until long after his retirement -- or ever.
But, economists in and out of government agree that Florida would benefit from long-term, structural changes in the public sector.
Amy Baker, director of the Office of Economic and Demographic Research, says the state should at least brace for a wave of Baby Boomers, who are now beginning to enter retirement.
"This will affect tax collections," she said, noting that retirees typically use more services and account for a smaller percentage of sales.
"We're too reliant as a state on sales taxes," she says.
Shifting demographics may give traction to long-standing calls to bring services under the sales-tax umbrella. Currently, hundreds of services are exempt from collections.
Florida TaxWatch estimates the state could generate up to $400 million more a year if it taxed services such as haircuts, dry cleaning and laundry, valet parking, photo finishing, pet care, fitness facilities, pest control, lawn services and sightseeing bus transportation.
On top of that, the state forgoes a whopping $12 billion in sales-tax revenue annually because of various sales-tax exemptions -- $10 billion of which includes food, medicine, housing and other necessities.
Aside from being perceived as tax hikers, lawmakers may find themselves in a vise, as TaxWatch and University of Florida economist David Denslow argue that the state's corporate income tax should be based exclusively on sales.
Arguments over the so-called Single Source Formula -- as well as the tax-exemption list -- have raged for years. These issues need to be resolved, business leaders say, if the state is to have a predictable, stable and competitive tax structure.
As in the short term, the long-term challenge for the business community is bolstering the state's employment base.
"Jobs -- nothing else matters," says University of South Florida economist Susan MacManus.
That means conserving the workforce at Kennedy Space Center and parlaying the high-tech knowledge there into new arenas.
That means freeing up businesses to compete to drive down prices on state contracts.
That means leveraging private education consortiums and private colleges to be bigger players in Florida's $30 billion K-12 and higher-education sector.
Unfortunately, the governor's office, state lawmakers and the Florida congressional delegation haven't been able to muster a coherent action plan to counter Obama administration policies that would eliminate 7,000 contractor jobs as KSC.
Lawmakers, meantime, have gotten tangled up in "local supplier" measures that would place geographic limits on who could bid for public-works jobs.
And courts have struck down school-voucher programs that would enhance competition in academics while achieving a net reduction in per-pupil spending.
In the event that Amendment 4 is approved by voters in November, business interests ranging from the Florida Home Builders Association to the Florida Association of Realtors warn that the state's development engine will grind to a halt.
Amendment 4, known also as Florida Hometown Democracy, would require local referendums on any comprehensive plan changes, which currently number in the tens of thousands each year.
The threat of resounding "no" votes could stall or stymie future development, says an opposing campaign organization, Citizens for Lower Taxes and a Stronger Economy."
South Florida economist Tony Villamil estimates that passage of the amendment would at most cost Florida 267,247 jobs and $34 billion in lost economic activity.
Business groups, led by the Florida Chamber of Commerce, have vowed to spend $15 million to defeat the measure this fall. If it passes, expect lawmakers to propose ways next session to tweak or circumvent the comprehensive plan process.
Looking ahead on the efficiency front, Sen. J.D. Alexander, R-Lake Wales, is sponsoring several bills designed to streamline and upgrade government operations, including SB 2020's "Information Technology Governance."
Sen. Jeremy Ring, D-Margate, has introduced SB 1218 to create an Office of the Chief Technology Officer within the Department of Financial Services. Appointed by the Cabinet, the CTO would be required to develop a multiyear plan of action for IT savings.
"Does it make sense for 25 state departments to all be buying their own computers? It's about cost-savings and the ability to harness the power of state government," said Ring's legislative aide, Joe Ramos.
"We have a number of information-technology companies on our IT council, and we believe a lot can be done to improve the efficiency of government," agrees Jose Gonzalez, a vice president with Associated Industries of Florida.
"The Department of Revenue consolidated and streamlined. Though that can't be done overnight, we think it can be done across state government. Business wants government that's going to be efficient and stay out of the way," he said.
Best practices in government are badly needed, business leaders say.
Citing one example, Mark Wilson, president of the state chamber, noted that the world's largest company, Wal-Mart has one-tenth the number of workers in its payroll department than the Miami-Dade School District.
Gaetz has a bill, SB 2534, that would allow local governments to consolidate their back-office operations with neighboring jurisdictions. But, because of constitutional restrictions, this could only be done if a "financial emergency" is declared.
"It takes political will more than it takes dollars to do the right thing," Wilson observes.
And, that will take more than one legislative session.
