It looks like a wet and jittery weekend in Florida.
After stalling in the Caribbean and dumping boatloads of rain on the Dominican Republic, Tropical Storm Emily is meandering toward the Sunshine State -- though no one knows exactly where.
Computer models have been all over the map. The consensus still has Emily's cone of probability grazing Florida's southeast coast on Saturday. Then again, one in three tropical storms and hurricanes veer outside those broad tracks, which means the peninsula could take a direct hit, or dodge the bullet altogether.
The state's Division of Emergency Management remained on its lowest state of alert Thursday, but that could change at any moment, said spokesman Bill Booher.
Booher, speaking from a state meeting of local emergency managers in Tampa, said, "Everyone is ready to bug out of here on short notice if need be."
So far, however, no one is hitting the panic button. Emily is not expected to strengthen beyond her tropical-storm status, which means winds of less than 74 mph.
Yet Floridians remember that Tropical Storm Faye was no day at the beach in 2008. Faye inundated some regions of the state with more than a foot of rain, causing widespread flooding that was as bad as some previous hurricanes.
The last hurricane to strike Florida was Wilma, which smacked the state with Category 3 winds (111-plus mph) in 2005.
Since then, Florida has been hit with a whirlwind of home foreclosures, leaving a whopping 18 percent of the state's houses unoccupied, according to Census Bureau statistics.
That's 1.6 million empty dwellings -- a 63 percent increase from a decade ago. Lee County in Southwest Florida leads the state with a staggering 30 percent vacancy rate, the Census Bureau reported earlier this year.
Foreclosed and abandoned properties could be a problem in a major storm, insurance industry spokesmen say.
"Vacant homes have a greater risk of fire, theft and vandalism losses," says Chris Hackett, director of personal lines policy at the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America.
"Many homeowners' insurance policies exclude coverage for certain losses if the home has been vacant for more than 60 days. It's a good idea for a homeowner to regularly check on an unoccupied dwelling," Hackett said from his Chicago office.
Booher added that in one respect unoccupied dwellings simplify the job of emergency managers.
"There aren't as many people to get out in an evacuation," he noted.
Booher said that "at most, we're expecting a tropical storm," and on Thursday he forecast that Emily would be mainly a "rain event." That could be a relief for parched areas of the state.
If so, Floridians may consider Emily an initial, and possibly wet, tune-up for what forecasters still see as a busy storm season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates 12 to 18 named storms by Nov. 30 versus an annual average of 11. NOAA predicts six to 10 storms could become hurricanes, with three to six of those ranked as "major" (Category 3 or above).
Colorado State University researchers forecast 16 named storms and nine hurricanes, of which five could be major.
Craig Fugate, chief administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said in a statement Thursday:
"As FEMA and our federal, state and local partners continue to closely monitor Tropical Storm Emily, it's critical that the public do the same.
"While Emily's path is still uncertain, we still want everyone to exercise an abundance of caution and take this storm seriously. It's still early in what forecasters predict will be a very active hurricane season," said Fugate, who headed Florida's Division of Emergency Management during the state's record spate of hurricanes in 2004 and 2005.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 559-4719.
