Travis Hutson is starting to pull ahead of Doc Renuart in the final days in the fight for the open Florida Senate seat that had been held by John Thrasher before he became president of FSU.
Hutson, Renuart and two far lesser known candidates are battling for the seat, including in Tuesdays Republican primary. Polls show Hutson with a comfortable lead over Renuart. Certainly, Hutson has a large lead in the money chase. By the end of December, he brought in $236,825, loaned his campaign $150,000 and spent almost $288,500. Renuart was far behind having raised $94,000 and loaned his campaign $50,000.
Its a bit of an odd election since Hutson and Renuart are both serving together in the Florida House and they are both generally on the same page when it comes to most issues. That being the case, both sides have been on the attack. Renuart has drawn fire for being a Charlie Crist clone; Hutson has been hit by Renuart for slinging the mud and also tried to tie his foe to Crist. Both candidates are claiming to be the real conservative, hitting their foes as tax-and-spend liberals.
The GOP establishment clearly likes Hutson more than Renuart. Hutson is far closer to the power brokers in Tallahassee while Renuart, even in his fourth term in the House, is an outsider. Thats certainly helped Hutson in the fundraising department.
But thats not the only advantage Hutson has. This district simply isnt a good fit for Renuart. While he represented parts of St. Johns and had Ponte Vedra Beach as his base, Renuarts first two terms in the House included parts of Jacksonvilles Southside. In 2012, Renuart was moved south during redistricting, losing the Duval County part of his district. Renuart didnt exactly impress in the primary for his new seat, taking 39 percent in a three-candidate race. Both of Renuarts foes had far deeper ties to the heart of St. Johns County than he did. While he might be well-known outside of Jacksonville, Renuart simply is not known in other parts of the district. Add in Hutsons financial situation and he becomes the favorite.
Still, Renuart has one path to victory and it relies on heavy military and veterans support. Renuart has been very active on veterans issues, leading the Veterans Affairs Committee and being a colonel in the Florida Army National Guard who served in Iraq and Afghanistan. In a Republican primary in Northeast Florida, that makes Renuart competitive even if the district and money are against him.
In the meantime, the attacks keep coming in on both sides. Hutson has the edge in the final days of the primary and looks like a favorite, though certainly he is not a heavy one.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
