Whos ahead in the gubernatorial race? It depends on who you ask. But one thing is clear -- the contest is shaping up into the tightest battle for the governors mansion since Lawton Chiles held off Jeb Bush in 1994 by the skin of his teeth.
Three polls were released Thursday showing the gubernatorial race is close -- with two of the polls finding the battle between Democratic nominee state CFO Alex Sink and Republican businessman Rick Scott to be within the margin of error.
Their release followed Sunshine State News' nightly tracking poll of likely voters a day earlier. The poll, conducted for SSN by Voter Survey Service of Harrisburg, Pa., showed Scott moving from a 45-45 tie with Sink Oct. 20, to a 47-45 advantage Oct. 27. Two weeks earlier (Oct. 12-13), Sink held a 48-45 advantage.
The Three Polls Out Thursday
Quinnipiac found Sink leading the gubernatorial race by a close margin, edging Scott with 45 to 41 percent. Quinnipiac had Scott with 45 percent and Sink at 44 percent earlier in the month.
"Although the governor's race remains very close, CFO Alex Sink has had a good week," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But with one in eight voters still in play and Scott's supporters slightly more solid in support, this race looks like it will go to the finish line as a dead heat."
The poll of 784 likely voters was taken between Oct. 18-24 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.
Mason-Dixon released a poll Thursday that also showed Sink edging Scott. The poll of 625 likely voters has Sink with 46 percent and Scott with 43 percent, which is within the polls margin of error of +/- 4 percent.
Sink led by 7 points in a Mason-Dixon poll released on Sept. 23.
A poll released by Rasmussen Reports had Scott ahead. The poll had Scott with 48 percent and Democratic nominee state CFO Alex Sink with 45 percent. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. Scott led the Rasmussen poll last week, 50 percent to 44 percent.
The Rasmussen poll of 750 likely voters was conducted on Oct. 27.
The polls found Sink doing a better job of reeling in Democrats than Scott was in keeping Republicans in his column. While Sink defeated Brian Moore in the Democratic primary with ease, Scott engaged in a bloody fight with Attorney General Bill McCollum for the Republican nomination. McCollum endorsed Scott last week -- almost two months after losing a close contest. The Quinnipiac poll found 85 percent of Democrats backing Sink while 74 percent of Republicans were behind Scott.
The Quinnipiac poll found Sink winning the backing of 44 percent of men and 46 percent of women. Scott won the support of 45 percent of men and 38 percent of the women surveyed.
"Given that Ms. Sink would become Florida's first female governor, the lack of a larger gender gap is perhaps surprising," said Brown. "She has some momentum, but anything can happen in the final days before Election Day."
The Quinnipiac poll showed Sink was seen more favorably than not, but just barely. The poll had 43 percent of voters seeing her in favorable terms and 39 percent as unfavorable. Scott was seen as favorable by 34 percent and as unfavorable by 50 percent.
"The relatively wide gap between Scott's unfavorable rating and his support in the horse race against Ms. Sink is unusual and probably reflects the Republican leaning of the electorate," said Brown.
The campaigns chimed in on Thursday, insisting that the polls showed their candidate could claim the momentum in the race.
The new polls are a validation of what Alex Sink has been saying for months on this campaign, said Alexandra Fetissoff, a spokeswoman for Sink. The voters have a clear choice between her honesty and integrity and her opponent's long history of fraud and unethical behavior.
Interestingly, Sink is opening a lead among moderates and independents, showing Florida is going against a national trend right now, added Fetissoff. Thats because Floridians know Alex Sink is a moderate and a fiscal conservative, not a liberal.
"These, like other polls, show that the race is very close and the only poll that matters is on Election Day, said Joe Kildea, a spokesman for Scott. As Floridians learn more about Rick's message of creating jobs and Sink's history of dishonesty and support of liberal policies, her ballot support should collapse."
Quinnipiac released another poll on Thursday morning, looking at the U.S. Senate election. The poll of the Senate race found that, while Republican Marco Rubio was still ahead, Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running with no party affiliation, was starting to close the gap at the expense of Democratic nominee U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek. Rubio took 42 percent with Crist in second with 35 percent; Meek lagged in third with 15 percent. The last poll Quinnipiac did in early October had Rubio with 44 percent, Crist at 30 percent and Meek with 22 percent.
Governor Charlie Crist has cut into Rubio's margin, but the former state House speaker remains the clear favorite to become Florida's next U.S. senator," said Brown. "With his supporters less likely to change their minds than those of his two opponents, Marco Rubio is in the driver's seat with only five days to go until Election Day. Most of the closure came not from Rubio voters deserting him, but from Congressman Kendrick Meek's voters moving to Crist.
"Governor Crist has pulled within hailing distance of Rubio, but there are a couple of unique factors that probably work against him in the home stretch, added Brown. First of all, he is listed at the bottom of the ballot below a number of unknown independent and minor-party candidates. And, since he is without a party, he lacks the ground operation that the Democrats and Republicans have to turn out their voters."
Like the gubernatorial poll they conducted, this Quinnipiac poll of 784 likely voters was taken between Oct. 18-24 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
