On Dec. 16, Jeb Bush stole a march on Mitt Romney and other possible Republican presidential candidates by announcing an exploratory committee for 2016. Now, three months later, Bush has to be happy with how the race is going.
Bush carries a lot of baggage into the primaries. Conservatives still havent forgiven him on Common Core or immigration reform. Certainly, plenty of voters are looking for a fresh face and, with his prominent last name, Bush is far from that. Bush is hampered on that front by Hillary Clinton being the odds-on favorite on the Democratic side.
Despite all of this, Bush has had a good first three months. Hes been raising money at a tremendous pace. Early on, the Bush camp let it leak that they could raise $100 million in the first quarter of 2015. Now, some are whispering that Bush will actually hit that ambitious mark.
Even better for Bush, his path to the nomination is growing increasingly clear as none of the favorites of the GOP establishment are going anywhere. Romney announced he was not running back in January. Chris Christie has never recovered from Bridgegate. Lindsey Graham is showing a good sense of humor but wont be a factor outside his home state of South Carolina. John Kasich and Mike Pence arent particularly active.
Bush is also helped by, once again, too many conservative candidates dividing the votes of those who would never consider backing the former Florida governor in the primaries. Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry all look gung ho on running in 2016. This has happened before. Too many conservative candidates allowed Bushs father, Bob Dole, John McCain and Mitt Romney to win the nomination.
So far, Bush is getting good reviews from his appearances in Iowa, New Hampshire and across the country. Bush handled CPAC well, helped by Sean Hannity tossing softballs at the questions and answers segment and having conservatives go overboard in their opposition to him.
But there have been some problems. Scott Walker has made some mistakes at this early stage but he is increasingly emerging as the most credible alternative to Bush. Thats bad news for the former Florida governor, especially as Walker is well-positioned in Iowa. Marco Rubio also looks like a candidate, hurting Bush to some extent in his own backyard. Conservatives continue to trash Bush on Common Core and immigration though he has not made any excuses or attempts to back off his positions.
Bushs 2016 venture has always had a bit of risk to it. Besides his various weak spots, Bush hasnt run for office since 2002, long before the advent of social media. Bush still has a long way to go but he has not blown up yet and is far better positioned than he was only three months ago, especially if he brings in the money some in his camp are saying he will. Bush had a good start to his 2016 efforts and conservatives will have to find ways to slow him down in the months to come. Right now, Walker looks like their best bet.
Tallahassee-based political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
