Despite three failed bids for state office, Charlie Crists name was floated as a possible Senate candidate on Thursday.
Peter Schorsch at Saint PetersBlog, a Crist loyalist, makes the case for why the former governor should make a third try for the Senate if Marco Rubio decides to run for president in 2016 instead of a second term. Schorsch writes that Crist would face some problems from the left but has become something of a hero to Democrats for taking on Rick Scott last year.
There are certainly plenty of Democrats whose names have been kicked around as possible Senate candidates, like Ted Deutch, Gwen Graham, Alan Grayson, Patrick Murphy and Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Any of them could give Crist trouble in the primary, though some of them -- especially new members of Congress like Graham and Murphy -- could be more open to running in 2018 when Bill Nelson, who will then be 76, could opt out of running for a fourth term.
Crist will have a hard time if he runs for the Senate yet again. In 2010, when he ran with no party affiliation, he came up short against Rubio. Having had three different political affiliations since 2010, Crist isnt exactly a fan of the party base. Nor will he find fundraising as easy in 2016 as he did in 2014. Plenty of Democrats opened up their wallets for Crist in 2014 and some of them will need some convincing to do it again only two years later.
While he might be able to bring in some independent votes, Crist is no sure thing in a general election for Democrats, even if that party generally does better in Florida during presidential election years instead of off-year elections. In November, Crist underperformed in some key areas for Democrats, namely Miami-Dade and Broward County. That was one of the main reasons why Scotts win over Crist was called so quickly, especially when compared to the 2010 contest with Alex Sink.
Democrats need Florida in 2016 if they want to keep the White House. That means running a Senate candidate in Florida who will help get their base out, something Crist clearly did not do in 2014 despite Democrats generally despising Scott.
Crist would also need a platform, a tough thing to do when a politician has been all over the map in a short time, transforming from conservative Republican to moderate no-party-affiliation candidate to liberal Democrat in less than a three-year span like Crist did from 2010 to 2012. Democrats would be far off with another candidate, a fresh face like Graham, Murphy and even Deutch whose social and economic liberalism can be masked by his support of a strong foreign policy. If Democrats want the White House in 2016, they should stay away from yet another Crist campaign which ends up being about his own ambitions instead of any convictions he has.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
