Gov. Rick Scott's rejection of high-speed rail may have laid the groundwork for derailing a Central Florida commuter train.
SunRail, a planned $1.2 billion line running through four counties, doesn't have the sex appeal of a high-speed train, but it has strong political ties to state GOP leaders.
"High-speed rail was President Obama's train. SunRail is the Republicans' train," says Matthew Falconer, an Orlando-based commercial real-estate owner who ran for Orange County mayor last year.
"We're thankful that Scott rejected the high-speed project. If he applies the same logic to SunRail, he'll do the same. It's a black hole," Falconer said.
Scott has not signaled his intentions, saying only that he is "reviewing" SunRail. And if he wants to stop the project in its tracks, he will have to traipse through a field of political land mines.
Central Florida's legislative delegation is solidly behind the 61-mile project. Lawmakers have earmarked state and federal funds for the first phase.
A Scott policy adviser told a Senate subcommittee last week that $269 million was in the governor's transportation budget for SunRail.
But critics say SunRail's financial outlook is even shakier than Obama's train -- and that it's freighted with special interests.
Starting with the $660 million purchase of CSX tracks, SunRail ran into controversy. State Sen. Paula Dockery, R-Lakeland, complained that the price was up to 10 times higher than the going market rate.
Critics also pointed to proximate land holdings by legislators and work that Sen. John Thrasher, former chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, did as a CSX lobbyist.
Going forward on aging CSX tracks -- some sections of which are 100 years old -- SunRail faced a budget crash. With no maintenance budget and bridge replacements costing as much as $50 million a pop, SunRail proponents scrambled for cash.
"The Florida Department of Transportation came up with a new way to cover overruns -- using money from local road budget and diverting gas taxes. That means they know there's going to be more overruns," said Sharon Calvert, who heads the Hillsborough County-based "No Tax for Tracks."
"The money for these rail projects does not exist," she says.
Meantime, federal dollars were coming up short. Washington committed $178 million for the first phase, barely half of its original $300 million pledge.
Undaunted, local and state politicians and business interests keep pushing SunRail forward -- and not necessarily to promote transportation.
"It's about concurrency so downtown builders can build," Falconer says. The existence of a commuter rail line allows developers to "check a box" that enables them to expand in Orlando's downtown, he said.
But Falconer and others question SunRail's viability as a transit service.
"It's a freight train pulling commuter cars at average speed of 17 mph," he says. "With 146 rail crossings and 50 trains that equals 6,000 gate closings a day. That's a traffic buster."
Is SunRail destined to go down the same road as the deficit-ridden Tri-Rail commuter train in South Florida? Despite all the Orlando-area cheerleading, the numbers are not encouraging.
Tri-Rail, which serves the state's most densely populated corridor running through Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties, has never turned a profit. The state subsidizes Tri-Rail with $34.6 million a year while passenger revenues cover only $10.4 million of the $64 million annual operating budget.
SunRail, with one-quarter of Tri-Rail's projected ridership, stands to lose $100 million a year, critics say.
SunRail estimates of 3,200 riders a day would amount to a miniscule 0.002 percent of the Central Florida population it presumes to serve.
"Tri-Rail was a bad idea. SunRail is much worse," Falconer concludes.
Still, finances and riders aside, SunRail has politics working in its favor.
The Florida Rail Enterprise Association -- a team of state, federal and local entities, including Osceola, Volusia and Orange counties and cities ranging from Orlando to Winter Park to Maitland -- has the ear of legislators, all the way up to House Speaker Dean Cannon, R-Winter Park.
Scott incurred wrath, or stony silence, from GOP leaders who favored the Obama-backed Orlando-Tampa high-speed line. State Republicans' commitment to SunRail will make the governor's call on the commuter line a tricky one.
An interlocking network of commercial interests, train enthusiasts and media hucksters gives SunRail sustained political pull.
But Dockery says Scott would be right to kill SunRail. Though the lawmaker favored the high-speed rail project, she says the Orlando-area commuter venture makes no sense.
"This is a sweetheart deal for CSX," she said.
Peg Dunmire, chairman of the Florida TEA (Taxed Enough Already) Party agrees.
"We must now redouble our efforts to kill off the SunRail commuter rail boondoggle," Dunmire said.
Other tea groups and grass-roots organizations such as the Orlando-based "Ax the Tax" express similar skepticism about rail projects while supporting Scott's efforts to curtail government spending.
Calvert, who allied with the "Ax the Rail Coalition" and others to block a tax for a light-rail system in Hillsborough County last year, says Central Florida taxpayers should be wary of SunRail hype.
"Operating costs become so high that municipalities must cut bus service or raise taxes," Calvert said. "Local and state governments are stuck with the tab."
"If Republicans are serious about cutting spending, rail is an easy one. It benefits very few people," she said.
"If Scott uses the same logic he used to kill the high-speed rail project, he cannot approve this," Falconer said. "Frankly, it's an unfunded mandate."
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
