It's still a way off, but the impending nature of the July 31 deadline for the Seminoles and the state to renew its Class III gaming compact must be weighing heavy on the Seminole Nation of Florida.
The nation and the state have been in talks for several months on how to renew the compact, but have failed to reach an agreement.
It's becoming increasingly obvious to many on the sidelines that with the keen interest of major casino operators and integrated resort developers, Gov. Rick Scott and the Legislature might be warming up to play a game of hardball with the tribe.
According to the provisions of the 2010 agreement, the Seminoles have an exclusive right to offer three card games at five of their casinos -- blackjack, chemin de fer and baccarat. In return, they have to share a portion of their revenue with the state -- an estimated $116 million a year -- to be in compliance with state and federal law.
Scott came close to renewing the compact last May but ran out of time when the 2014 legislative session ended. Bad luck for the tribe. Now, with the election over and the economy rebounding, legislators are far more cavalier about the renewal deadline -- some questioning whether the state needs the Seminoles' money at all, others wanting to look at options like destination resort casinos.
Right now the governor is waiting for the 2015 Legislature to give some indication of what lawmakers want. Do they want to renew the gaming compact and nothing else? Dismiss all gambling expansion? Expand gaming to include pari-mutuels and perhaps two destination resort casinos?Scott has the sole authority to negotiate the compact, but he can't renew or revise it without legislative approval.
The Seminoles are in a precarious position the longer the compact goes unsigned. They've got all kinds of expansion plans of their own. Bond rating companies want to know that the Legislature wont come in and abrogate the compact, the tribe's Tallahassee lawyer, Barry Richard, told The Miami Herald.
Theyve got big projects on their books -- which is good for the state, but in order to be able to finance them at reasonable rates they have to have long-term security, Richard said. They dont want to have to fight a battle year after year.
The tribe was a substantial contributor to Rick Scott's re-election campaign ($2.3 million). And to his inauguration, come to that.
But so were other players in the casino quest -- Genting Group ($2.5 million) and Sheldon Adelson, the Las Vegas casino magnate and owner of the Las Vegas Sands ($7.5 million in all, $5 million of that to oppose Amendment 2).
Here is where the governor and the Legislature could make life uncomfortable for the tribe.
Genting already has a presence in Miami, on the waterfront property of the former Miami Herald building. A casino as part of its hotel plans for that property makes the Malaysian multinational corporation an obvious choice for South Florida. But the Legislature could allow a second integrated resort-casino, this time in Tampa.
"With Disney in Orlando, there won't be any hotel-casino there," said economist Damian Cruz. "But Tampa would be very appealing to any Las Vegas casino operator."
That would bring on the pains for the Seminoles. Their Hard Rock Tampa does a $1 billion-a-year business, making it arguably the most profitable hotel-casino in the United States.
And a rival for Hard Rock Tampa is a great deal likelier with the presence of Jeff Vinik,the former Boston mutual fund manager, now owner of the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Vinik, 55, has been acquiring property around Amalie Arena, where his hockey team plays. The once-industrial area is mostly a collection of parking lots -- but its all downtown waterfront property, and Vinik has big plans for the 40-acre block he controls.
In December he formally presented his $1.2 billion project, which he will call "18-7" -- a corporate headquarters, hotels, an entertainment complex, retail space, a medical school, and residences. All together, he's talking about 3 million square feet that easily could take a decade to build out. It's a very big, transformational deal for the Tampa Bay waterfront.
Right now Vinik is looking for hotel partners. A first-class integrated casino resort hotel would fit nicely in his plans. There is no luxury hotel in downtown Tampa -- it was a major problem during the Republican National Convention in 2012. As part of Vinik's waterfront project, said Cruz, a high-end integrated hotel-casino would put Tampa on the map as one of the premiere vacation destinations in the country.
Ultimately, we're talking about a $500 million hit to the Hard Rock. Which has to be the biggest fear for Richard and the tribe.
And here's a little known fact: Guess who has a tie to Tampa, who used to live in Davis Islands, a Tampa neighborhood and archipelago on two islands, when he was first starting out?
Sheldon Adelson.
That's the same Adelson, chairman and chief executive officer of the Sands Corp. of Las Vegas, who is not just a contributor to the governor, but his good friend.
Scott and lawmakers have said the Legislature could present an enabling bill, certainly, and the governor could sign it. But they want the ultimate decision to expand gaming in specific communities left at the local level.
The specter of Tampa as a destination resort-casino, of Vinik's gargantuan, first-class development to enfold it, and the compact renewal deadline approaching like a freight train ... leaders of the Seminole Nation of Florida have to be pulling their hair out.
Reach Nancy Smith at nsmith@sunshinestatenews.com or at 228-282-2423. Twitter: @NancyLBSmith
