The stakes will be high in Las Vegas as nine Republican presidential candidates get ready to engage in Tuesday night’s main event as CNN hosts the fifth round of debates.
The race has changed considerably in recent weeks as terrorism replaced the economy as the top issue for many Republican voters after the Paris and San Bernardino attacks. Donald Trump still remains at the top of the polls but Ted Cruz has broken from the pack to be his top challenger, overtaking him in some surveys of Iowa which holds the first caucus in seven weeks.
With voters starting to get more focused on the holidays than presidential politics, Tuesday night might be the last chance for some of the dark horses to make a breakthrough while the top contenders want to leave a good impression that will linger through the start of the year.
Here’s a look at what the candidates have on the line in the debate:
Jeb Bush: The former Florida governor has not done well in the previous debates. Expectations are low for Bush on Tuesday night and a strong performance will help reassure some of his backers that he can get back in the race. Bush can’t afford to stay on the sidelines as he has in past debates but, at the same time, his attacks against other candidates have often fallen flat. Still, Bush should not garner too much fire and might profit from reminding Republicans about his record in Tallahassee. One major caveat. Bush has often focused on education when showcasing his record as governor but many conservatives distrust him on the issue due to Common Core. It’ll be interesting to see if Bush is able to walk that tightrope any better on Tuesday night.
Ben Carson: No candidate has been hurt as much as Carson has in the past month. Republican voters still like him but he’s no longer the chief alternative to Trump. Much of Carson’s decline has been the result of renewed concerns about terrorism and immigration and Cruz has been the chief beneficiary at the celebrated neurosurgeon’s expense. Carson needs a solid outing on Tuesday night to stop the bleeding and remind voters why they liked him in the first place. If Cruz and Trump and the other candidates end up in a food fight, Carson, who has always remained above the fray when spats have taken over the stage, might end up profiting.
Chris Christie: The New Jersey governor has done well in the past debates and there are signs he is slowly building momentum, especially up in New Hampshire. Christie has been strong on security and terrorism issues which give him a chance to talk about his experience on 9/11 and his record as a U.S. attorney. There are plenty of Republicans who still haven’t forgiven him for working closely with Barack Obama in Hurricane Sandy’s aftermath right before the 2012 presidential election and Christie’s favorability is still rocky with likely GOP voters, especially in Iowa. Christie can help dispel some of the doubts on Tuesday night, especially if he has the chance to focus on security issues.
Ted Cruz: The senator from Texas is riding high, battling Trump for the lead in Iowa and moving up in national polls. Cruz has shined in the first debates but he has not drawn much in the way of fire, often serving as something of a peace maker on the debate. That could change on Tuesday night and Trump, who has generally been complimentary of Cruz, could turn his fire to his surging rival. It’ll be a change of pace for Cruz to be on center stage and how he manages the limelight could have major ramifications for his candidacy. Cruz generally does well on international issues and terrorism but he should expect a few jabs from Marco Rubio on that front.
Carly Fiorina: While she used the first debate to vault out of the undercard and clashed with Trump in some of the most memorable moments of the campaign so far, Fiorina has reached a plateau. She is a strong debater but she hasn’t offered much to the campaign besides that. While she got bumps in the polls after her debate performances, Fiorina has come crashing down thereafter. Even worse, she has little in the way of support in either Iowa and New Hampshire though polls show Republicans in those key states think well of her. Fiorina has to be strong once again in the debate and make a more lasting impression than she did in the earlier ones.
John Kasich: The Ohio governor is looking to build some momentum in New Hampshire and has often veered towards the center in his attempts to distance himself from the other candidates. That hasn’t exactly worked for past candidates likes John Anderson and Jon Huntsman in Republican primaries. Still, Kasich is aggressive, often overly so, and while he might win the applause of the mainstream media, he is having a hard time winning the support of Republican voters. Kasich has to give conservatives and Republicans a reason to back him and claiming the center isn’t the way to do that. One thing to keep an eye on. Besides leading a large state which will be crucial in November, Kasich did serve on the Armed Services Committee during his time in Congress. He’s no rookie when it comes to security and international issues.
Rand Paul: The senator from Kentucky had his strongest debate performance last time out but it did not help him move up. Indeed, the weekend saw reports that Paul barely made in into Tuesday night’s debate and was considering ending his candidacy if he was not included in it. But Paul has done well when the focus has been on national security and terrorism, even if his views don’t sit well with large segments of the GOP. One thing Paul can’t afford to do is be a non-factor. There have been several times in the earlier debates when he almost vanished from the stage and the moderators probably won’t be rushing to feature him too much on Tuesday night.
Marco Rubio: The senator from Florida has been a steady performer in all the debates and he is pretty much in third behind Trump and Cruz for the moment. Rubio had done well in exchanging fire with Trump but he’s increasingly focused on Cruz, especially when it comes to international issues. But Rubio is also starting to draw a little more fire from other candidates and Christie in particular has fired a few shots at him, especially in New Hampshire. While he is doing well in polls, Rubio is starting to get questions about his organizations in Iowa and New Hampshire and his focus on those key states. It’ll be interesting to see if Rubio tries to make a pitch to Republicans in either state on Tuesday night.
Donald Trump: The celebrity businessman continues to defy gravity even as Cruz replaces Carson as his chief rival. Trump has benefited from the renewed focus on terrorism, tying his message on immigration to the issue. It’s worked so far and Trump’s voters are strongly committed to him. But large parts of the GOP will not back Trump and he needs to win over some of these voters, especially as some of their preferred candidates fall back. The fact that Cruz is picking up some of Carson’s defecting supporters instead of a fellow-outsider doesn’t bode well for Trump’s chances of corralling other candidate’s backers.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
