A knock-down, drag-out fist fight between Senate candidates Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio on "Fox News Sunday" may make for good network ratings, but what does it profit the Republican Party of Florida?
A bloody brawl might have some GOP leaders nervously clutching their TV remotes. Yet, the increasingly combative race is drawing evermore intense focus on Florida as a bellwether state for the Fall elections coast to coast.
"In many past elections, Florida Republicans have just held their nose and voted for the candidate who can beat the Democrat. With polls showing even Democrats saying the health-care law should be repealed, that rationale is gone now," says Rick Wilson, a GOP media consultant, who has run campaigns in 30 states.
"This (debate) is a test of which candidate is in tune with the national mood. Republicans have come home, and Marco Rubio has become a real favorite because he's not trying to play the purple Florida game that Charlie Crist has been so adept at," Wilson said.
If this is a year for red-meat Republicans and Tea Partiers, it's a tough one for career politicians who try to be all things to all voters.
If the questions e-mailed to the Fox show's Web site this week are any indication, Crist will face a skeptical audience Sunday.
Among the hard queries:
* "Why wouldn't someone feel Mr. Crist is putting his own interests ahead of those of us who voted for him? He hasn't even completed his first term as governor. If elected, is he going to run for president in 2012?"
* "Governor Crist, when you were campaigning in Northern Florida, a Republican committeewoman said that you were a Democrat at heart. Why did you take that as a compliment?"
* "Why would you want the taxpayers of Florida to overpay by $400 million or more for land to restore the Everglades?"
Rubio could come in for some zingers, too, such as this one: "How can you serve in the United States Senate when you literally stole party monies? We believe that honesty trumps everything...do you disagree?"
State Sen. John Thrasher, chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, said he is "looking forward to a spirited debate focused on the many important issues facing our state."
Through party spokeswoman Katie Gordon Betta, Thrasher, R-Jacksonville, said:
"We have two outstanding candidates in the U.S. Senate primary whose values more similarly reflect those of the majority of Floridians, unlike Kendrick Meek, whose vote in favor of the $2.5 billion government-run health-care experiment only reflects the values of Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi."
Officially, the state party is maintaining a neutral position in the primary contest. By contrast, Thrasher's disgraced predecessor Jim Greer, a close confidant of Crist, was tightly tied to the governor's camp.
"This (debate) is a huge win for the Republican Party in the sense that no one even knows who the Democratic candidate is in this race, though some may think Crist is playing that role," said Everett Wilkinson, director of the South Florida Tea Party.
Crist's political juggernaut, which, for years, ran smoothly down the middle of the highway, now appears in danger of becoming road kill. Trailing badly in the polls, his campaign's vaunted fund-raising machine is sputtering.
Responding to the latest Mason-Dixon poll, which showed the governor pulling within 11 percentage points of Rubio, Crist press secretary Amanda Henneberg released this statement:
Polls will continue to fluctuate throughout this campaign. However, voters are just beginning to see the real Marco Rubio, as opposed to the idealized version of the speaker that is based on rhetoric alone.
"This campaign is clearly shifting into a debate on character, and as even more of Speaker Rubios real record is revealed, it is clear Florida Republicans will turn to the proven conservative leader, Charlie Crist, to carry our party once more to victory in November.
Meantime, Rubio has ascended to rock-star status as he utilizes social-networking sites and masters Internet fundraising. Sunday's debate will be a test of the Miamian's telegenic Q-rating.
Said one Republican operative: "Charlie has to knock Rubio so far out of the park in this debate that Osama bin Hitler would have a better chance of winning."
But, so far, Crist's campaign fusillades against Rubio look more like an exercise in ready-fire-aim.
The governor's questioning of the former lawmaker's party-issued credit card were quieted by subsequent revelations that some Crist campaign expenses turned up on the credit card of former state GOP executive director Delmar Johnson.
Even Crist's release of 10 years of personal tax returns could provide more grist for the political mill.
"Fox News Sunday" host Chris Wallace might ask, for example, why the governor, who earns a $133,000 salary, claimed zero charitable contributions on his latest return.
Wilson, who ran Locke Burt's unsuccessful 2002 primary campaign against Crist for attorney general, respects the governor's adroit use of traditional media, including television.
But, the political strategist says times are changing, and GOP voters are venturing beyond the old media outlets.
"Knowledgeable Republican voters are just as likely to read RedState.com as they are the St. Pete Times or the Miami Herald. And, the more they read, the more they're convinced that Crist is the St. Pete Times' [lackey]," Wilson said.
Meantime, Rubio's camp is tech-savvy about using the Fox debate as a springboard for Twitter tweets and Facebook conversations. Crist, whose fan numbers lag far behind Rubio in those venues, has not divulged his e-networking plans, if any.
"Crist is running a campaign of the 1980s. If you don't keep up with technology it will kick your ass," Wilson said. "Rubio is using all the tools and structural efficiencies of the Internet."
In terms of mobilizing its base and grabbing the electorate's attention, "The GOP is doing a great job of positioning itself," said Wilkinson, who added that the Tea Party has not endorsed in the Senate race.
But, Crist has been hobbled by persistent rumblings that he will run as an independent or "No Party Affiliation" in November -- a scenario he will surely hear again on Sunday. [Editor's note: Running as "No Party Affiliation" in the November general election would allow Crist to retain his Republican registration.]
While the independent strategy is predicated on his ability to win crossover votes in the general election, it also opens the door to a wholesale run on Crist's bank vault.
Once a candidate abandons his or her party, donors to that former party hopeful can ask for their money back. That's what happened to Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter, who lost 45 percent of his contributions when he switched from Republican to Democrat.
Insiders say several Crist staffers who left the campaign in the past month did so because he was entertaining the idea of running as an independent or NPA.
No ex-staffers would confirm this on the record, and Crist has repeatedly denied he was considering a switch, but the mere hint of a conversation coincided with an increase in Crist's negative poll numbers and a widening lead for Rubio.
Reach Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or (772) 801-5341.
