Florida, already the largest swing state in the 2016 presidential election, will have a close and competitive race for the U.S Senate seat currently held by U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., national pundits predicted this week.
Rubio announced on Monday that he is running for president and will not seek a second term to the Senate next year. State Cabinet Republicans Attorney General Pam Bondi and CFO Jeff Atwater said in recent days they were not going to run for the Senate.
Even with Rubio, Bondi and Atwater out, the field of potential candidates continues to grow. U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy, D-Fla., jumped in last month while U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson, D-Fla., has left the door open to challenging him in the Democratic primary. On the Republican side, U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., and former Florida Senate President Don Gaetz, R-Niceville, said on Tuesday they were looking at running. U.S. Rep. Tom Rooney, R-Fla., is also looking at entering the Senate race while U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, R-Fla., and U.S. Rep. Curt Clawson, R-Fla., are also possible candidates. So are former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux, R-Fla., Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera and former Florida House Speaker Will Weatherford.
National pundit Geoffrey Skelley, part of the team with Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, looked into theCrystal Ball this week and said the race was up for grabs.
Rubios presidential ambitions leave an open U.S. Senate seat to be contested in 2016, Skelley wrote. We had previously listed the GOP as slight favorites in case Rubio opted to seek re-election, but now its time to make a change. With Rubios announcement, we are moving the 2016 Florida Senate contest from Leans Republican to Tossup.
Skelley noted Atwaters decision left the Republican primary wide open and could lead Bondi to reconsider or Florida Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam entering the race, though most think he is running for governor in 2018. The only possible Republican Senate contender Skelley was down on was LeMieux.
Given LeMieuxs failed Senate effort in 2012 -- he dropped out prior to the GOP primary -- its difficult to imagine him winning if he were to run this time, Skelley wrote.
Looking at the Democratic side, Skelley called Murphy more electable than Grayson.
Should Grayson run, the Democratic primary could get ugly and expensive -- and if Grayson is the nominee, the Republican nominee is likely to be the favorite in the general election, Skelley insisted. Murphy, a former Republican, is the kind of moderate Democrat who historically has had success in Florida.
Skelley closed by noting the high stakes in Florida. What we do know is that a mountain of money and resources will be thrown into this state by both parties -- both the presidency and control of the Senate could depend on it, he wrote.
Jennifer Duffy from the Cook Political Report also looked at the race this week and judged it a tossup.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's decision to seek the Republican presidential nomination and thus forego a re-election bid creates the second open GOP seat of the cycle, Duffy wrote. It also becomes the first Republican seat in the Tossup column. Had Rubio run for re-election, he would have started the race as the favorite, but an open seat in a swing state in a presidential year will be a much more competitive contest.
On the Democratic side, U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy has already announced his candidacy, but he is likely to get a challenge from a more progressive candidate, Duffy added. U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson is contemplating the race and would certainly run to Murphy's left.
On the Republican side, Duffy downplayed LeMieuxs, Buchanans and Rooneys intentions to run.
U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis is expected to announce his candidacy soon, while Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera and state House Speaker Will Weatherford are also thought to be likely candidates, Duffy wrote. Former U.S. Sen. George LeMieux and U.S. Reps. Vern Buchanan, David Jolly and Tom Rooney have also been mentioned as potential candidates, but are not likely to run.
Duffy, like Skelley, expected the race to be a close one.
The fields on both sides will take some time to get sorted out, but we expect a very competitive general election almost regardless of who the parties nominate, Duffy wrote. The race moves from the Likely Republican to the Tossup column.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
