As an "independent" senator, Charlie Crist would be in a position to leverage his vote for Florida's greater good, political observers say.
Or, in the words of another, he would be "largely ineffective."
If Crist beats Marco Rubio and Kendrick Meek in the fall election, "neither party would be terribly happy with him as he will be perceived as denying them a win," said Roger Stone, a veteran political consultant who worked on Ronald Reagan's 1984 campaign.
Unlike Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, who nominally left the Democratic Party, Stone predicted that Crist would be "largely ineffective as a freshman independent" for jilting the GOP.
"Lieberman is a workhorse, Crist is a show horse. He won't be at many hearings when the weather is nice," Stone said from his South Florida office.
Other observers aren't so quick to write Crist off as a serious player on Capitol Hill.
"If Crist pledges to caucus with the GOP, they will support him. He could be key to getting a majority in the Senate," said Froma Harrop, a Providence Journal columnist and syndicated pundit who writes about national politics.
"Whichever party emerges with a majority will have to cater to outliers in the party," she said.
Currently, the Senate has 41 Republicans, 57 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the Democrats.
"When the governor wins the election in November, he will join the Republican caucus in the Senate for organizational purposes," predicts Doug Guetzloe, leader of the TEA (Taxed Enough Already) Party.
"If the GOP reclaims the Senate, which is possible but more likely in 2012, Crist will be in great position to claim a committee chairmanship. Power has a way of mending previous political disputes," said Guetzloe, who was student body president at Florida State University when Crist was vice president.
"When Crist wins, all will be forgiven on the national level since his victory will be considered a 'Republican' win and he will add an extra vote to the Republican caucus," he said.
But the state director of the South Florida Tea Party, which has sued Guetzloe over use of the TEA Party name, sees things very differently for Crist and Florida.
"(Crist) would be a critical person in Senate votes. But this won't benefit the state. He'll go with most policies of the liberal left, like cap and trade, and he'll be a one-term senator," Everett Wilkinson said.
Rather than likening Crist to Lieberman, Wilkinson compares him to Arizona Sen. John McCain, who considered Crist as a prospective running mate in 2008.
"McCain is called 'McClinton,' and he is one of the most disliked senators from the Tea Party perspective," Wilkinson said. "He's on the wrong side of campaign finance and amnesty issues, and in line with (George W.) Bush and neo-con policies."
That said, McCain announced recently he would yank his support of Crist if the governor bolted the GOP. "I support Republicans," the self-styled "maverick" said.
A Democratic consultant, who asked not to be identified, said "Crist could be a powerful swing vote in a place where there aren't many swing votes to start with."
"Crist looks at the merits of an issue and his independent status would put him the middle of a lot of discussions," the consultant said.
This consultant could not say, however, if that center-stage status would be a plus or a minus for Florida.
FreedomWorks, a conservative group based in Washington, doesn't expect much from Crist -- as an independent or a Republican.
"I think Charlie Crist would be a disaster as a senator, regardless of his party label. He would support bad economic policies and massive spending bills like the stimulus," said Brendan Steinhauser, director of federal and state campaigns for FreedomWorks, a Tea Party organizer.
"Crist currently is doing nothing to address Florida's property insurance crisis. Instead he isopposing insurance reform in the Legislature. This is his record as governor, and I wouldexpect it to be the same as a senator."
Adds Wilkinson: "The only thing Charlie could figure out about the health care bill was the 10 percent tax on tanning beds."
On a more serious note, Steinhauser opined, "Based on (Crist's) actual record, he would be in the same camp as Harry Reid and Barbara Boxer. It wouldn't give him more leverage just because he had an 'I' by his name."
Stone, who served as a post-presidential adviser to Richard Nixon and sports a tattoo of the former president's face on his back, says Floridians of any political persuasion are bound to be disappointed by Crist as senator.
"In my 40 years in this business, I've never met a more self-centered politician. He believes in absolutely nothing," Stone said.
Brian Darling of the conservative Heritage Foundation sees a distinction between politically expedient electoral tactics and strategies based on genuine philosophical differences:
"As somebody who worked for former New Hampshire Sen. Bob Smith, I am familiar with the idea of a politician leaving the Republican Party. Sen. Smith quit the Republican Party in 1999 because he felt the senators in the Republican Party were ignoring the conservative ideas in the platform.
"Smith caucused with the Republicans and his voting record remained conservative. Ironically, this is the same Bob Smith who, until recently, was running against Gov. Crist and Marco Rubio in the Florida Republican primary.
"Unlike Crist, Bob Smith left the party for purely ideological reasons, not because he was worried about winning one election," said Darling, who is Senate relations director for the Washington, D.C.-based think tank.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
