Moving to the right of GOP icon Jeb Bush, Gov. Rick Scott is breaking new ground in his proposed state budget.
With a barebones spending plan to be unveiled Monday in the small Central Florida town of Eustis, Scott is "basically daring the Legislature to go counter to him," says Susan MacManus, a public administration and political science professor at the University of South Florida.
Not only is Scott taking the novel step of rolling out his budget away from Tallahassee, he is staking out a more fiscally conservative position than any of his recent predecessors. And that includes Bush.
While Bush submitted conservative spending plans each year, he routinely signed off on budgets that were enlarged by the Legislature.
"The fact of the matter is, the budget increased in [Bush's] eight years, and increased dramatically," said University of Florida political science professor Daniel Smith.
But those were the go-go days of Florida's growth, and times have changed -- fiscally and politically.
"I don't see the governor putting up an austere budget for the lawmakers to raise. I don't see him allowing that. I see him as a fiscally conservative leader," Smith said.
By pledging to make Florida the "most fiscally conservative state in the country," Scott will test the mettle of his fellow Republicans. Senate President Mike Haridopolos and House Speaker Dean Cannon have already questioned the governor's vow to cut property and corporate taxes in addition to slashing the budget.
Senate Ways and Means Chairman J.D. Alexander, another leading Republican, is even raising the stakes by upping the state's deficit projection to $5 billion. He says the budget needs an additional $1 billion for future bonding.
'USE GOVERNOR AS THE BAD GUY'
Historically, governors and lawmakers have wrangled over spending levels and priorities.
"Every governor expects the Legislature to change his proposals. If lawmakers just rubber-stamped what the governor proposed, there would be no need for them," MacManus observed.
"The governor lays down the blueprint; the building of the budget is done by the Legislature."
In the process, there's plenty of room for gamesmanship. One former lawmaker familiar with the budget process said legislators may be happy to let Scott take the heat for severe funding cuts.
This lawmaker, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said legislators will "gauge the temperature" of the public and, when necessary, "use the governor as the bad guy."
Scott and GOP lawmakers will find common ground in many areas as they seek to restrain state spending. And public opinion polls are giving budget-cutters strong support.
"People are expecting the governor to have a barebones budget," MacManus said.
Citing Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo in New York and Republican Chris Christie of New Jersey, MacManus said "Democrats and Republicans alike have to be very realistic about budget proposals. They'll take bigger heat if they don't cut."
Like Cuomo tweaking the Democratic machine in Albany and Christie canceling the costly trans-Hudson rail tunnel, Scott has grabbed a share of the national spotlight as a no-nonsense cost-cutter.
SCOTT REACHES OUT TO HIS BASE
Yet there will be flash points, even among those who brand themselves fiscal hawks.
"The Legislature and the governor should be in concert ideologically, but they have different constitutencies -- and that's the rub," Smith observes.
Even something as politically popular as reforming the state's pension program could run into roadblocks.
"Every lawmaker has state employees in his or her district. They worry about the strength of teacher lobby, which is sizable. They're going to be hearing an earful because, in effect, it's a pay cut," Smith notes.
Scott, the consummate outsider, has a different view of the political landscape, and his decision to unveil his budget in the Lake County burg of Eustis (population: 16,000) speaks volumes about his perspective.
By getting outside the close confines of Tallahassee and away from the state's major population centers, Scott is reaching out to his base: everyday, small-town Floridians who toil in the private sector.
It's no coincidence that tea party activists, who propelled Scott to victory over party insider Bill McCollum in the GOP primary and carried him across the finish line in November, are hosting Monday's budget event.
Though it's not uncommon for governors to traverse the state after announcing their annual spending plan, UF history professor David Colburn says he cannot recall a 20th-century governor first presenting the state's budget anywhere other than Florida's capital city.
NO LOVE FEST WITH THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA
By hitting the road, Scott effectively stuck his thumb in the eye of provincial Tallahassee-based reporters.
"His relationship with the press corps is probably going to continue to sour, and this is another sour note," Smith said.
But what's bitter to Tallahassee insiders -- including the mainstream press -- tastes sweet to tea partiers and grass-roots supporters who see a growing gap between political-media elites and rank-and-file taxpayers.
After four years of pitching softballs to the chameleonic Charlie Crist, newspaper editorial boards unanimously endorsed Democrat Alex Sink over Scott in the 2010 election. Scott refused to kiss the Fourth Estate's ring and didn't bother to show up for the interviews.
A Quinnipiac Poll released last week showed that respondents have little sympathy for press complaints about supposed lack of "access" to the governor. Instead, Floridians are eager to see the governor curb the size and cost of government.
By delivering his austere budget to a tea party gathering in rural Florida, Scott figures to score on both counts.
As Punta Gorda tea party activist Robin Stublen put it: "If the Tallahassee press corps wants to cover it, they can get in their cars and drive."
REVENUE OUTLOOK MAY BRIGHTEN IN MARCH
As the budget mill starts grinding in Tallahassee, veteran lawmakers point to March as the key month to watch.
"Revenue estimates are held down now, but they come back up in March," one of those legislators said. "It happens every year."
Florida's politicians can only hope that trend continues this spring.
But, surely, sizable budget cuts are coming.
"It will be interesting to see how Floridians will respond to the cuts. Floridians are pretty middle-of-the-road when it comes to fiscal conservatism," Smith said.
--
Reach Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
