Marco Rubio is meeting with his team in South Florida with buzz growing louder that he intends to run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. Certainly that has been the theme of the national media this week as Rubio lingers on the national stage plugging his new book.
Rubio is about to get a lot more attention. Hes scheduled to hit early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina as he continues his book tour in the weeks to come.
But there is a big obstacle in Rubios path: Jeb Bush. Over the years, Bush and Rubio have been close allies and its impossible to imagine them really taking each other on during 2016. With Bush gearing up to bring in a major haul, with reports that his team wants to raise $100 million in the first quarter of 2014, it will be tough for Rubio to keep up, especially if his Florida base is more behind the former Florida governor.
The national media are focusing on Rubio bringing Anna Rogers on board to raise money. Yes, Rogers did well with American Crossroads, but that group was the brainchild of Karl Rove who helped put Bushs brother in the White House. Its hard to imagine the Rove machine that put George W. Bush in the Oval Office really going against his brother.
Rubio can certainly make a presidential bid -- but its far more likely if Jeb Bush opts out of running. Still, theres no harm done in Rubio raising his profile. If Bush stumbles, Rubio makes sense as a vice presidential candidate. Only 43, Rubio can introduce himself to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire in the hopes of a future presidential campaign.
There are also other options for Rubio in the short term. Now that the GOP controls the Senate, Rubio could feel a little pressure to run for a second term and keep that seat in the Republican column. There are also increasingly loud whispers that Rubio is eyeing a return to Tallahassee, this time as governor. Certainly being governor of the largest and most important swing state in the nation is a far better launching pad for a presidential bid than being a senator.
If Bush stays out its a far different story, but, even as he goes through all the motions, it is very unlikely Rubio enters the fray if his old ally makes a serious run. Rubio will enjoy his moment in the spotlight and go through the motions but Bush will essentially eclipse him if they both run.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
