Florida GOP primary winner Mitt Romney dominated in large metro areas along both coasts, the important I-4 corridor and scored big with Hispanics.
The results are a marked improvement over his effort in 2008, when Romney finished second to Gov. Charlie Crist-backed U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who swept the Sunshine States large Central and South Florida counties and Hispanic populations.
This time around, with tea party favorites such as Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam and Attorney General Pam Bondi backing the former Massachusetts governor, insiders point to Romneys support from state party leaders and vastly underrated suburban areas, where economics trumps social issues, as a sign that Romney will be able to attract moderate independents in the fall.
I think Romneys performance in counties like Indian River, Martin, Palm Beach and Collier, shows hell do well with country club independents, said Randy Nielsen, a top Florida political consultant for the Republican Party.
Theyre comfortable in life and they got comfortable in life because they were successful business people, theyre good investors that worked hard their whole lives and have been able to reap benefits by the sweat of their brow.
Veteran political strategist Roger Stone said Romney's campaign made a conscious decision to focus on economics, rather than social issues that attract the evangelical right, as was the case four years ago, a core of his campaign.
That shift is why the majority of counties below the Georgia state line and in a few inland areas, small agricultural counties -- including several that favored Romney in 2008 -- went for former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas finished a distant third and fourth statewide.
"Clearly, this time (Romney) was the candidate of the Republican establishment and he wasnt four years ago," Stone said. "And now Gingrich and Santorum and Paul have filled that vacuum on the right."
Brett Doster, founder and president of Front Line Strategies, who headed Romneys Sunshine State effort, said the campaign focused more on the I-4 corridor and South Florida because that is where the people are.
With strong Hispanic support, Romney received 67,181 votes in Miami-Dade to 29,164 for Gingrich.
In Orange County, Romney got 36,218 votes to 24,890 for Gingrich, and in Hillsborough County, Romney won 42,971 to 25,417.
Four years earlier, McCain won by 9,000 votes in Hillsborough, 400 votes in Orange and more than 7,000 in Miami-Dade.
Doster said Gingrich had momentum coming out of South Carolina, but a campaign needs to have an organization and financial resources in place to deliver its message in the short window between primaries.
The well-financed Romney campaign was able to retool its efforts quickly after South Carolina, putting Gingrich on the defensive in a pair of debates, while sharpening Romney's image as the person best suited to take on Obama.
Still, Republican consultants say the Panhandle results could be a sign that Romney may continue to have trouble in the South through the primary. But they don't envision those voters will be saddling up to Obama in the fall.
Nielsen said a class warfare argument from the White House wont work on Panhandle voters.
Their hearts and minds will follow the Republican nominee against Barack Obama, Nielsen said. There is no doubt in my mind that Clay County will vote heavily against Barack Obama.
Clay County was one of six in Florida that voted for Romney in 2008 but sided with Gingrich on Tuesday.The others were Baker, Bradford, Columbia, Nassau and Union.
Part of the change is that four years ago, Romney was viewed as a more conservative alternative to the establishment choice of McCain and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee.
University of Florida political science professor Daniel Smith said the Panhandle results may be a sign that in some Southern battleground states such as Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, evangelical and staunch conservatives may have a difficult time deciding between Obama and Romney because of his Mormon faith.
The question is, will those voters turn out, even if evangelical leaders endorse Romney, or will they remain home on Election Night, Smith asked.
Stone said that while evangelicals play a bigger role in South Carolina, where Gingrich won, than in Florida, where they may dominate small rural counties, he doesnt see them embracing the liberal social views of Obama.
The greater potential for leakage is not among evangelicals, but among tea party and non-evangelical conservatives, presuming the Libertarian Party has a nominee, Stone said. The Libertarian doesnt need to get many votes to have an impact.
Still, insiders and experts agree it is difficult to compare Florida voter trends from one presidential year to another because of the transient nature of the state.
As a sign of the change, they note that four years ago South Florida Cubans didnt line up behind Romney.
In 2008, Romney trailed McCain and Huckabee for the South Florida Hispanic vote.
On Tuesday, Romney dominated Gingrich among Hispanic voters, among Cubans in South Florida and the Puerto Ricans along I-4, according to network exit polls.
You can chalk that up to the elite endorsements he had, Smith said of the change in view in Miami-Dade and Broward counties.
Among those backing Romney in South Florida were Cuban-American U.S. Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Miami, and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Miami.
And while U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Miami, declined to make an endorsement, the senator spoke volumes when he requested Gingrich pull a Spanish-language radio ad that described Romney as "anti-immigrant.
Stone said the Republican nominee will have to counter anticipated Democratic efforts to register non-Cuban Hispanics along the I-4 corridor.
While non-Cuban Hispanics are perceived to be encamped with the Democrats, the Washington, D.C.-based Hispanic Leadership Network noted that Hispanics in general are less supportive of Obama than four years ago, with six in 10 saying the president has not delivered on his promises.
My guess is the White House strategists are having to do some real soul searching right now, Nielsen said.
Reach Jim Turner at jturner@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 215-9889.
