With less than nine months until the primary, it appears Rick Scott wont have to deal with any major Republican challengers in 2014. Thats good news for Scott who has a tough hill to climb as Charlie Crist leads in the polls.
Scotts numbers are getting better but he still trails Crist, who could be the first Democrat to win a gubernatorial race since 1994. With Scotts numbers in the tank and bad blood lingering over a nasty primary fight with Bill McCollum in 2010, there have been rumbles that Scott could face a major primary opponent next year.
But no Republican has stepped up to the plate. After Scott backed accepting federal dollars for Obamacares Medicaid expansion, some conservatives called for Adam Putnam to challenge the governor. Despite opposing Scott on the issue, Putnam has shown no interest in taking him on in 2014. The same holds true of other Republicans who opposed Scott on Medicaid expansion. The likes of Jeff Atwater, Pam Bondi and Will Weatherford made it clear they werent interested in primarying Scott.
Allen West was also mentioned as a possible primary opponent for Scott. After redistricting and losing his seat in Congress, West has no love for the Republicans in Tallahassee. West is clearly looking to remain politically relevant but he rejected calls to challenge Scott and praised the governors record.
Scott helped his chances of avoiding a primary when a prominent Republican endorsed him this week. Jeb Bush, still the most popular Republican in Florida, fell in line behind Scott on Tuesday. They havent always been on the same page, parting ways on Common Core, and Bush did back McCollum over Scott last time out. By getting Bush on quickly, Scott can damper down talk about GOP disunity, especially with a former Republican like Crist now running as a Democrat.
There are other factors helping Scotts chances of dodging a primary battle. In 2010, Scott was the political outsider while the Republican leadership was firmly behind McCollum. Now the Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) is lined up behind Scott. While there are certainly some legislative and congressional contests commanding attention, the RPOF will be mainly focused on helping Scott out in 2014.
Scott also commands an impressive war chest. Between his own wealth and the coffers of Lets Get to Work and other groups, Scott is prepared to spend heavily in 2014. With Scott commanding the support of business groups, a major Republican primary opponent would be scrounging for cash. The only way to beat the governor in a primary would be for a candidate to rely on his own money, just like Scott did against McCollum.
Thats not to say Scotts in the best of shape. Even though he is doing better in the polls, hes still an underdog to win another term. But if Scott gets toppled in 2014, it will be at the hands of a Democrat, most likely Crist, and not by a member of the GOP.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.
