Here comes Rick Scott: A poll released by Quinnipiac University Tuesday morning shows the Florida governor is moving, making headway with voters against his anticipated closest rival, former Gov. Charlie Crist.
The poll finds Scott trailing Crist, the former Republican who joined the Democrats last year, in a possible 2014 match-up, 47 percent to 37 percent. That's a marked improvement from a Quinnipiac poll in March that showed Crist up by a larger margin, routing Scott 50 percent to 34 percent.
"It is an indication of how far down Florida Gov. Rick Scott's numbers have been that he can take some solace from a poll that finds him losing by 10 points to his predecessor in the governor's office," said Peter Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, on Tuesday. "In addition to cutting the deficit between himself and former Governor Charlie Crist, Governor Scott sees his tepid job approval and favorability numbers and his still-negative re-election numbers as notably improved.
"Now that doesn't mean that happy days are here again for the governor, but if he is going to make a comeback, these are the kind of steps that would be required, Brown continued. Whether it is the start of something larger, we'll see in the coming months.
The poll shows members of both parties are starting to rally behind the candidates despite the bitter primary Scott had against Bill McCollum back in 2010 and Crist jumping parties. Scott takes 75 percent of Republicans while 13 percent back Crist. The former governor carries 83 percent of the members of his new party while Scott gets 8 percent of Democrats. Crist leads Scott among independents, taking 45 percent, while the governor gets the support of 33 percent of them.
The poll shows a gender gap. Men break even between Scott and Crist with each candidate getting the support of 43 percent. A slim majority -- 51 percent -- of women back Crist while only 32 percent favor Scott.
"For Scott to win, he will have to do better among Republicans than Crist does among Democrats; carry independent voters and drastically reduce his deficit among women, Brown said. That's a tall order, but there are 17 months until the election."
Surprisingly, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, the only Democrat to hold statewide office and a politician who has been winning elections in Florida for four decades, leads Scott by the same margin Crist does. Nelson takes 48 percent while Scott gets 38 percent.
Scott does hold a lead over former state Senate Democratic Leader Nan Rich. Scott takes 42 percent while Rich garners 36 percent. Rich is the only major candidate who has officially entered the 2014 gubernatorial race.
The poll offers good news for Scott on other fronts as well. The governor gets mixed marks when it comes to voters approving of his performance in Tallahassee, with 43 percent approving and 44 percent disapproving. Thats much better than the Quinnipiac poll taken in March when 49 percent disapproved of Scotts performance while 36 percent approved.
In March, a solid majority -- 55 percent -- of those surveyed thought Scott should not be re-elected, while less than a third -- 32 percent -- thought he deserved a second term. According to the new poll, Scott has made up a little bit of ground there, though 50 percent still believe he does not deserve a second term while 35 percent think he should get four more years.
Scott as a person also gets mixed marks from Florida voters, with 40 percent viewing him favorably and 42 percent unfavorably. Back in March, only 33 percent had a favorable view of him personally while 46 percent had an unfavorable view.
While Scott is doing better with voters, the poll also finds some of his possible Democratic opponents are in solid shape. Crist is seen as favorable by 48 percent of those surveyed while 31 percent see him as unfavorable. But voters give his party-switching mixed marks, with 47 percent saying it shows Crist is a pragmatist and 44 percent saying it means he has no principles.
Nelson also does well in the poll with 41 percent viewing him in a favorable light and 23 percent seeing him as unfavorable. A slim majority -- 51 percent -- approve of Nelsons performance in Washington while 29 percent do not.
Despite her tenure in Tallahassee and being in the race for more than a year, the poll finds Rich remains unknown with Florida voters. Only 7 percent have a favorable view of Rich while 6 percent see her as unfavorable, but a whopping 84 percent of those surveyed dont know enough about her to hold an opinion.
Still, Scott does have one weapon at his disposal: the economy. In recent months, Scott has been pointing to the state unemployment rate dropping and saying his policies are helping Floridas economy. The poll shows 33 percent believe Floridas economy is getting better while 18 percent say its getting worse. Back in March, 31 percent said the economy was getting better and 21 percent said it was getting worse.
According to the poll, 82 percent of the voters who believe the economy is getting better think Scott deserves at least a little credit for the turnaround and 65 percent think President Barack Obama deserves at least a little credit for it.
Brown said the economy remains key to Scotts political fortunes next year.
"The governor needs to make voters believe he is responsible for a better economy, Brown said. That's the key to his electoral future. He isn't going to get re-elected because he is Mr. Personality. He needs to essentially convince voters, 'You may not like me, but I'm the guy who is making things better.
The poll of 1,176 registered Florida voters was taken from June 11 through June 16 and had a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at 904-521-3722
