Election Day is here and Florida should prepare for a long night.
Rick Scott and Charlie Crist are locked in the polls with neither man breaking out of the margin of error in most of them. Several recent polls show the race tied or with one candidate or the other ahead by a point or two.
The last week or so, both sides have been sending out campaign memos on absentee ballots and early voting, trying to spin the results as good for their candidate and bad for the other guy. But they have also been trying to get out their bases, bringing out famous politicians at the national and state levels to try to get their voters out to the polls.
This has been an ugly, uninspiring contest. Both sides have gone on the attack early and often with the campaigns more focused on attacking the other guy than in tipping their cards for the next four years. Whoever wins on Tuesday will be more disliked than liked by Florida voters. With Florida voters knowing both these candidates -- and not liking either of them that much -- as cliche as it sounds, it comes down to turnout. There will be few undecided voters heading into the polls on Tuesday and both sides have been beating the bushes, trying to get their voters out in force.
But if the gubernatorial race looks close, the other contests dont. None of the other Florida Cabinet races are particularly compelling with Republicans prepared to run over their Democratic opponents. Pam Bondi will face the closest challenge but she should handle George Sheldon on Tuesday night.
Most of the Florida congressional races look like blowouts. The only congressmen in any jeopardy -- and they are both fighting for their political lives -- are Joe Garcia and Steve Southerland. Every other member of the Florida delegation will skate to victory on Tuesday.
Nor should Florida voters expect to stay up late to see how constitutional amendments ballot measures go. Amendment 2 on medical marijuana has gotten most of the attention but polls now show it headed for defeat as opposition firmed up against it in the last weeks of the campaign. Amendment 1 on using a percentage of real estate taxes for land conservation looks headed for an easy win while Amendment 3, giving the governor more power on naming judges, is prepping for a big loss.
There isnt much suspense when it comes to the Florida Legislature. The Democrats didnt even try to pick up the Senate, running so few candidates against sitting Republicans that its mathematically impossible to control the chamber even if they run the table. Things look tight in the rematch between Democrat Maria Sachs as she tries to fend off Republican Ellyn Bogdanoff. Over in Tampa Bay, Republican Jeff Brandes should be able to hold off Democrat Judithanne McLauchlan.
Republicans are pushing to expand their majority in the Florida House, looking to build a veto-proof majority. They will come close. Freshman Democrats who rode in on Barack Obamas and Bill Nelsons coattails in 2012 face serious Republican challengers, especially in Central Florida. Considerably fewer House Republicans are facing major opposition. Itll be lost in the shadows of the gubernatorial race and Amendment 2, but if Republicans get a veto-proof majority, that will be a huge factor in the upcoming session, especially if Crist beats Scott.
Still, even with some of the side stories -- Southerland against Graham, Garcia versus Carlos Curbelo, Patrick Murphys rising star, GOP efforts to expand their legislative majorities, Jeff Atwater and Adam Putnam building for the future -- all eyes will be on the gubernatorial race. Floridas elections end as they began, all about Rick Scott and Charlie Crist.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
