When Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire disagree over who the Republican presidential nominee should be, the race turns to South Carolina, which has broken the tie -- and that could be good news for Gov. Rick Perry of Texas who leads in two polls in the Palmetto State.
Before the 1988 presidential election, the legendary Republican operative Lee Atwater led efforts to ensure his home state of South Carolina would have a large role in determining the GOPs presidential nominee. Atwaters efforts bore fruit in 1988. While Bob Dole carried Iowa, Atwaters candidate, George H.W. Bush, won in New Hampshire and South Carolina on his way to the nomination. In 1996, Dole won Iowa again and beat Pat Buchanan, who had carried New Hampshire, in South Carolina. Dole went on to win the nomination. In 2000, Iowa winner George W. Bush beat John McCain, who carried New Hampshire, in South Carolina. McCain won in New Hampshire again in 2008 -- but this time carried South Carolina over a crowded field of candidates including Mike Huckabee, who won Iowa, and Mitt Romney.
For the moment, Perry leads in polls of Iowa while Romney is running strong again in New Hampshire -- meaning South Carolina is looming once again as a tie-breaker. As of now, according to two polls, that should provide comfort for Perry who has rocketed to the top of polls at the state and national levels since entering the race earlier in the month.
A poll released on Tuesday by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a firm with connections to many prominent Democrats, showed Perry had a commanding lead in the Palmetto State. Perry topped the poll with 36 percent while Romney was in second with 16 percent. Former U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota took third with 13 percent.
The rest of the field followed in single digits. Two candidates from neighboring Georgia came close to breaking into double digits as businessman Herman Cain carried 9 percent and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich garnered 8 percent. U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas stood in sixth place in the poll with 5 percent followed by former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania with 4 percent and former Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah with 2 percent.
When former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin --who has left the door open to running but has not entered the race yet --was included, Perry still led the pack with 36 percent followed by Romney with 13 percent, Palin in third with 10 percent, Cain with 9 percent and Bachmann dropping to tying Gingrich in fifth with 7 percent.
When PPP polled South Carolina in June, Romney led the pack with 30 percent followed by Gingrich and Cain tied for second with 15 percent. Bachmann followed with 13 percent and Paul stood in fifth with 10 percent.
People can make fun of Rick Perry for some of his statements, but Republicans agree with most of what hes saying and its fueling a large lead for him in South Carolina, insisted Dean Debnam, president of PPP, on Tuesday.
The poll of 750 usual South Carolina Republican primary voters was taken from Aug. 25-28 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percent.
The Texas governor also lead a Magellan Strategies poll of likely South Carolina primary voters released at the end of last week with 31 percent, followed by Romney with 20 percent. Bachmann was in third with 14 percent. The rest of the field trailed in single digits -- Cain at 9 percent, Gingrich with 5 percent, Paul with 4 percent and Santorum and Huntsman with 2 percent.
The Magellan poll of 637 likely primary voters was taken on Aug. 22 and 23, and had a margin of error of +/- 3.88 percent.
Huntsman added to his team in South Carolina this week. State Attorney General Alan Wilson announced that he was backing the former Utah governor for the Republican nomination.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
