"Special interests" vs. "grass roots." That's the narrative emerging in the Republican race for U.S. Senate.
Adam Hasner appeared to win a public-relations skirmish after Mike Haridopolos' withdrawal from the contest Monday. Hasner's camp quickly claimed endorsements from the national tea party organization FreedomWorks, along with a nod from American Future Fund PAC and Concerned Women for America.
But George LeMieux is sitting on a growing pile of cash, and that $950,000 counts for a lot. It led the GOP field in the second quarter.
Conventional wisdom holds that big money wins big elections. Yet that calculus did not work out for Haridopolos, whose early start helped him raise more than LeMieux and Hasner combined.
It's unknown where Haridopolos' backers will go now, but an intraparty cash scramble is beginning.
Heretofore, Hasner bragged about running third in the money race. His campaign not-so-subtly implied that more cash equals a more compromised position politically. But by that logic, less-funded contenders like Mike McCalister and Craig Miller can claim an event greater degree of independence.
Eventually, donors and media will judge LeMieux and Hasner, the presumptive front-runners, according to the size of their respective bankrolls.
Contrary to the conventional wisdom, there's plenty of green to be found in the grass roots.
"The real money is with the grass roots," declares Javier Manjarres, who edits the conservative political blog Shark Tank and has been active in Florida Republican politics.
"The establishment will sit and wait to see if either Hasner or LeMieux catch fire. They learned their lesson last year in supporting Charlie Crist over Marco Rubio."
A South Florida political consultant predicts that Haridopolos' donors will stay put. "They are most tied to his being Senate president," said the strategist, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The consultant concurred that small grass-roots donors are "very important," but added, "There will be significant 527 activity against LeMieux in the primary."
Doug Guetzloe, who has returned to the GOP after a consulting stint with the Florida TEA (Taxed Enough Already) Party, says, "The big-money guys are going to wait and watch it all play out over the next several months before they open up their personal checking accounts for a federal campaign."
And, ultimately, the big bundles of cash will make the difference, Guetzloe says.
"The grass-roots donors can never make it up in volume even though they may try. It's always nice on the campaign reports but the small stuff can never compete with the special interests."
A self-funded candidate could still emerge, a la Rick Scott. One name being mentioned is Nick Loeb, a Miami-based businessman who could put up $2 million to $3 million of his own money and possibly raise matching sums.
Miller, a former Ruth's Chris CEO who entered the Senate contest last week, also has a hefty personal bankroll. But his third-place showing in the 24th Congressional District primary last year raises doubts that he could fare any better in a statewide campaign.
Back in the grass roots, Henry Kelley of the Fort Walton Beach Tea Party, says, "There is zero consensus on a 'tea party' candidate for Senate.We believe we need to let the cake bake a little longer."
For now Kelley says, "I think Senator LeMieux certainly has a conservative voting record and can possibly beat [Bill] Nelson, but Hasner and McCalister have appeal as well."
Kelley and South Florida Tea Party director Everett Wilkinson called FreedomWorks' early endorsement a mistake.
"FreedomWorks jumping into this race was not, in my opinion, helpful or wanted. Their record of winning seats in 2010 calls into question their judgment," Kelley said.
"Frankly, [FreedomWorks' founder] Dick Armey should be called to account for his votes as a congressman on raising the debt ceiling rather than trying to dictate who we should support and vote for in 2012."
Another Florida Republican, speaking on background, said FreedomWorks doesn't rate as a "grass-roots" operation. "FreedomWorks is a top-down driven Washington group with more bluster than troops," the source said.
Wilkinson said he "begged" FreedomWorks to stay out of the race at this stage.
"The primary isn't until August 2012. Another candidate could always come in January or even April," noted Wilkinson, who admitted he learned a hard lesson when his early endorsement of Bill McCollum was blown up by Rick Scott's late entry into the gubernatorial contest last year.
Peter Schorsch, who edits the centrist political website, SaintPetersblog, said, "It almost looked as if Hasner went for a Tea Party knock-out punch [Monday], rolling out all of those endorsements.I think it's a reaction to McCalister doing well at the straw polls and on the stump.
"Hasner actually has to firm up his right flank, which he could not have foreseen being vulnerable," Schorsch noted.
Manjarres said it's unclear who is considered "more establishment" in the Senate race.
"I still think donors will sit tight and wait for a campaign surge like we saw in 2010."
If one thing is clear, it's that the Republican nominee -- whoever it is -- will need big bundles of cash and a motivated, mobilized base to take on Nelson in the general election. The two-term Democratic senator reported this week that he raised $1.8 million in the second quarter and has amassed a war chest of $6.07 million. On top of that, he spent much of last week making a grand pitch for more.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 559-4719.
