A prominent Florida Democrat is looking to help turn the South blue -- but come November 2014 she could be singing the blues.
Former Rep. Loranne Ausley, who was the unsuccessful Democratic candidate in 2010 against Jeff Atwater in the state CFO election, is helping lead a new project to swing the South back from the Republicans. Teaming up with Democratic strategist Jill Hanauer, who is well-known for her work in Colorado, Ausley will be launching the Southern Project in the weeks to come.
The national media, which spent much of 2012 wondering whether Barack Obama would be competitive in Texas (he wasnt), is already wondering whether Democrats have a chance of picking up a U.S. Senate seat in Georgia. But the South will be hostile territory for Democrats in 2014 with Republican incumbents generally in good shape while a few Democrats will be fighting for their political lives.
Democrats certainly have some opportunities in the South in 2013 and 2014, especially as they look to build on gains they have made in Florida and Virginia in recent years. With Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell stumbling badly in recent months, Democrats hope former Democratic National Chairman Terry McAuliffe can defeat state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli in November. U.S. Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., appears to be a heavy favorite to keep his seat in 2014. Democrats also have their eyes on taking down Gov. Rick Scott and picking up a few congressional seats in Florida come 2014.
But there are only a handful of other opportunities in the 11 states that made up the Confederacy for Democrats. Republican Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, a favorite of the tea party, starts out as the favorite over Democrat Vincent Sheheen in a rematch from 2010 but it should be a competitve race. With U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss, R-Ga., retiring in 2014, Democrats are hoping the large field of prominent Republican candidates will lead to a bloody primary and a possible opening.
But that seems about all the possibilities Democrats can have to win seats from Republicans in the South come 2014. Texas Republicans Gov. Rick Perry, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn could all be facing primaries but the GOP should easily keep these offices in 2014. The Republican governors of Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee appear to be cruising to re-election. So do Republicans representing the South in the U.S. Senate as Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Thad Cochran of Mississippi and Jeff Sessions of Alabama appear to be in excellent shape for 2014.
In the meantime, Republicans have their own chances to win seats from the Democrats. Republicans are optimistic about their chances to defeat U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C., in 2014. Two top-tier Republican candidates -- U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton and Lt. Gov. Mark Darr -- are looking at running against U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., in 2014. Gov. Mike Beebe leads a group of Democrats holding statewide office in Arkansas who are retiring or facing term limits in 2014 and Republicans have to like their chances there. Republicans could also pick up a Senate seat in Louisiana where Republicans are starting to line up to challenge Democrat Mary Landrieu.
Republicans clearly have the advantage in the South come 2014. The GOP controls every single state legislative chamber in the 11 states that made up the Confederacy and that does not appear likely to change in the short run. At the very least, Republicans in the South hold the upper hand as the 2014 election cycle kicks off.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
