Reports surfaced Monday that former Rep. Shawn Harrison will aim for a rematch in 2014, setting his sights on the seat occupied by Rep. Mark Danish, D-Tampa. Danish defeated the Republican last year in an upset.
Danish and Harrison duked it out in one of the closest legislative races of the last election cycle. When the smoke cleared, Danish had won by 800 votes, taking 50.5 percent while the Republican incumbent took 49.5 percent.
On paper, this is a district that leans slightly Democratic. In the 2010 gubernatorial campaign, Democrat Alex Sink took 50 percent of the vote in this Hillsbrough County district while Republican Rick Scott mustered 46 percent. Democrats make up 41 percent of the voters in this district while 35 percent are Republicans.
With Republicans controlling Tallahassee, expect Harrison to be well-funded. But he was in excellent financial shape in 2012 only to lose by the skin of his teeth to Danish. In the 2012 election cycle, Harrison spent almost $299,000 and relied on almost $71,700 through in-kind donations. Danish appeared woefully underfunded, spending just over $20,000 -- and around a quarter of that was spent in a competitive Democratic primary.
But as his primary victory showed, Danish is a solid grassroots competitor. Danish had something of a late start to his campaign in 2012, only entering the contest in early April. That still gave him a few weeks over his Democratic rival, attorney Z.J. Hafeez, who entered the race in late May and had run for the Florida House in 2010. Hafeez, who won some press attention due to his youth and Muslim faith, had a strong financial advantage over Danish, raising almost $55,000 and loaning his campaign $8,400. While that was nowhere near the $152,000 Hafeez spent in his 2010 battle, when he came up short against Rep. Greg Steube, R-Sarasota, it was certainly enough to think he had the edge on Danish.
When the primary rolled around, it simply did not matter. Danish won 61.8 percent of the vote in a low turnout primary and easily dispatched Hafeez. Shocking even more political observers, Danish would go on to defeat Harrison in November despite being seriously underfunded.
Danish filed to run for another term in the middle of December. Between then and March 31, Danish did not exactly impress with fundraising -- not that it mattered in 2012 when he lagged behind Harrison and Hafeez in the money chase. Between Dec. 13 and March 31, Danish raised $10,500 and spent around $380.
Even with Harrison expected to have the financial edge in a 2014 rematch, Danish has shown twice that he can overcome financial disadvantages to win. After their close race in 2012, expect a rematch between Danish and Harrison to be one of the most intriguing 2014 legislative match-ups in Florida.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.
