The total cost of the first phase of Floridas high-speed rail project could be more than double official estimates, according to a report released Thursday by the Reason Foundation, a California-based libertarian think tank.
Robert Poole, one of Scotts transportation transition team advisers, helped write the report, which states that the rail line that would connect Tampa and Orlando could cost $3 billion more than the current official estimate of $2.7 billion. The report even recommended abandoning the project altogether.
Floridas cost estimate of $32.1 million per mile is more than doubled by estimates for a section of Californias high-speed rail line, which put the cost at $67.8 million per mile. Poole used a 64-mile stretch in Californias Central Valley, with flat lands comparable to Floridas, to contrast the estimates.
If the Florida project is low-balling the cost estimate to that extent, the cost could be double. And there are many reports in California saying those estimates are too low, Poole said.
Preliminary construction removing obstacles along Interstate 4 and replacing bridges to make way for the Tampa-Orlando line is expected to begin this year, and the line is expected to be finished by 2015. Florida has secured $2.4 billion in federal funds for the project, with a further $280 million to be provided by a public-private partnership.
The report also suggests Florida should follow the examples of Wisconsin and Ohio, where new Republican governors have canceled rail projects that were in the works. In lieu of cancellation, the state should make sure it has an iron-clad agreement to hold its private partners accountable for all cost overruns, Poole said.
The taxpayers should not be on the hook for that, he said.
The report issued by Poole and others on Scotts transportation transition team held a similar view.
The transition team agreed with the position the governor took during his campaign, which is that no state money should be spent on the project, Poole said.
The Florida Department of Transportation points to two independent studies on ridership, one of which was conducted using population figures updated through 2009, to say that operating revenues will cover costs. According to those studies, about 2.4 million riders will use the rail in its first year, paying between $15 and $30 for a one-way ticket and generating $49 million.
But the Reason Foundations report is skeptical of those figures, noting that 2.4 million riders is two-thirds the ridership of the Amtrak Acela Express service, which serves New York, Washington, D.C., Boston, Philadelphia and Baltimore -- areas that have eight times the population of Orlando and Tampa.
Besides the possible capital cost overruns, Poole and his co-author, Wendell Cox, are concerned that the gap between the rails yearly revenues and expenses could lead to a built-in annual subsidy for Florida taxpayers.
History tells us that cost overruns could run into the billions and ridership shortfalls will likely leave taxpayers with an open-ended bill for operating subsidies, Cox said.
A spokesperson for Scott said he is reviewing the Reason Foundations study and wants to make sure the project gets a return on investment for Floridians.
FDOT Press Secretary Dick Kane said Thursday he has not seen the report and is unable to comment until he has.
Reach Gray Rohrer at grohrer@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
