Will Hurricane Irene be the second coming of Hurricane Floyd? FEMA chief Craig Fugate said Tuesday that the projected path and strength of Irene resembles Floyd's track in 1999, when that storm blasted the Bahamas, raked the Eastern seaboard and triggered the third largest evacuation in U.S. history.
The latest computer models show Irene swelling to a Category 3 storm over the Bahamas beginning Wednesday and then turning northward -- presumably away from Florida.
But Fugate and weather experts said the Sunshine State should remain on alert for any potential twists in the forecasted path.
"There will be a hair trigger on evacuation decisions," Fugate said of beach communities up and down the East Coast.
If Floyd is any guide, Irene will strike the upper Carolinas as a slightly diminished Category 2 storm. On his trip up the coast in September 1999, Floyd prompted the evacuation of 2.6 million people in five states.
Some 65 million East Coast residents live in the projected path of Irene.
"Most people think of hurricanes as a Southern thing," Fugate said. "The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast need to take this seriously. People need to be ready."
Scheduled to reach Category 3 (sustained winds up to 130 mph) by Wednesday and exit the Bahamas Thursday morning, Irene's big variable is exactly where and when she makes her predicted turn north.
"It's too soon to say what states will be affected. We're saying the entire East coast, not just the Southeast," Fugate admonished.
FEMA is preparing staging bases up the coast, but not yet in Florida. Fugate said Florida's Division of Emergency Management, which he headed before being tabbed by President Obama to lead FEMA, has a "robust warehouse" of needed supplies and equipment.
At minimum, FEMA planners expect "very hazardous marine and beach conditions" along Florida's east coast through Friday.
"There will be treacherous surf conditions," Fugate said, warning adventurous surfers in search of big waves to stay land-bound as Irene churns through on Thursday.
Meantime, the Insurance Information Institute sounded the alarm for tornadoes, which can be spawned by far-flung rain bands hundreds of miles away from a hurricane's eye.
With tropical-force winds fanning out 200 miles from the center, Irene figures to cut a broad swath.
The largest known outbreak of tropical cyclone tornadoes was caused by Hurricane Ivan in 2004, with 127 tornadoes forming over a three-day period, according to data collected by The Tornado Project of the Universities Space Research Association. Eighteen of those tornadoes hit Florida.
Hurricane Frances in 2004 spawned 108 tornadoes.
The insurance institute noted that storms do not have to reach hurricane strength to raise the tornado threat. Tropical Storm Fay in 2008 spun off at least 49 tornadoes, three of which were rated with winds as powerful as a Category 3 hurricane.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
