Not a drop of oil from the Gulf of Mexico spill has washed up on shores south of Floridas Big Bend. And Southwest and Central Gulf Coast Realtors have their fingers crossed, hoping beyond hope it stays that way so their waterfront property remains clean and their housing markets survive the disaster.
I will not speculate, and I will not pursue the notion that we will see the oil, said Republican state Rep. Matt Hudson of Naples, broker and vice president of Florida VIP Realty Group.
The real estate industry south of the Big Bend may not be immune to the ill effects of the spill, but it is at least not facing the spread of oil in its various forms sporadically washing onto beaches from Pensacola Beach to Panama City Beach. These Northwest Florida beaches remain open, for the most part, although there have been swimming advisories for some and one temporary full closure recently.
One University of Central Florida researcher studying the economic impact of the spill says markets in large, Central Florida counties on the Gulf Coast could be slightly better insulated from the impact on the housing market than northwestern counties.
Pinellas and Hillsborough counties have a diversified economy that is less dependent on tourism right now thantourist-reliant Northwest Florida counties in their peak vacation season, said Sean Snaith, director of the University of Central Floridas Institute for Economic Competitiveness. And that is to their advantage, he said.
The job losses will likely be less severe in those counties, he said.
Its too soon to tell how severely property values and sales will be diminished in the wake of the oil unleashed by the destruction of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig more than two months ago.
Communities throughout Florida, not just in the Panhandle, have been frustrated by national media reports that exaggerate the reach of the oil or say Floridas beaches are closed or covered with tar. And the tourism industryhas been dealing with an unknown number of room and restaurant cancellations.
Places like Pinellas will probably see devalued property, but the more diversified an areas economy is, the fewer jobs will be lost, Snaith said. And fewer job losses will support a healthier housing market in places like Tampa Bay, if not markets farther south, he said.
The farther you get away fromTampa/St. Pete, the less you get counties that are diversified, he said.
Mary Anne Windes, president of the Emerald Coast Association of Realtors, said that it will be a while before the effects of the spill are determined for Northwest Florida properties, but she is hearing anecdotal evidence that people are backing out of sales. Theres no denying that the spill is coming at the worst possible time for the tourism industry there, and the ripple effect on workers and the housing market is worrisome.
This is our biggest problem right now, she said. This is our season.
Oil has not ventured into the Gulf loop current, which could bring oil as far as the Keys and up the east coast, and a report released earlier this week by Florida Realtors showed that home sales were up 18 percent in May,over the figures inMay 2009. But Realtors, normally an optimistic lot, are still wary. There are currently no projections for oil to enter the area, but southwest and central communities are one bad hurricane away from having the oil wash up on their shores, Realtors fear.
Pinellas Countys job market and offering of real estatecould help it weather the bad effects of the spill, said Ann Guiberson, president of the Pinellas Realtor Organization.This is a very, very diverse area, she said.
The peninsula attracts buyers who are familiar with Florida, and they will be less susceptible to being scared away by bad press that exaggerates the extent of the spill, Guiberson said. Still, the spill could be trouble for distressed condominiums, and the area is still recovering from the popped housing bubble, she said.
Its difficult to say how hard Southwest Florida housing markets will be hit in comparison to Northwest Florida because they are completely different markets with different populations, Hudson said. Lee Countys large populations alone make it more diverse than Northwest Florida, but it doesnt have the advantage of military bases and the influx of sales they bring.
The way to help Southwest Floridas real estate market is to make sure tourists keep coming, Hudson said. Inaccurate reporting of the spill is giving a bad impression about the area, he said.
The anxiety about the spill is prompting some property owners to push the Legislature and governor to approve property tax relief, from the new tax assessment next year, for homeowners whose properties were devalued by the spill. Some are saying that the governor should call for a special session, in which he wants to advance a state constitutional ban on oil drilling, to pass the legislation immediately.
Sen. Mike Fasano, R-New Port Richey, is one of those people. Popular tourist destinations like Treasure Island and Pinellas County Beach make the Tampa Bay areahighly susceptible to damage done to the tourism industry, he says. We have to look at those whose properties are being devalued, regardless of where they are in the state, he said.
Troy Glaves, president of the West Pasco Board of Realtors, shares the concern of many that property values could be in for a fall. For one simple reason: Above anything, he said, the biggest reason anybodys going to come to Pasco County is sunshine and the Gulf of Mexico.
Reach Alex Tiegen at atiegen@sunshinestatenews.com, or at (561) 329-5389.
