A new poll of Iowa shows Republicans remain divided on who they want to see as their nominee in 2016 while former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has a huge lead over potential Democratic rivals in the first caucus state.
Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP) finds U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky has a slight lead over a pack of rivals in Iowa. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who had led a PPP Iowa poll taken in February, has fallen back to fifth place among Republicans.
Paul leads the pack with 18 percent followed by Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey with 16 percent, U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin with 15 percent and former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida with 14 percent. Rubio places fifth with 11 percent followed by U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 10 percent. Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who upset Mitt Romney to win the Iowa caucus in 2012, is seventh with 6 percent followed by two governors in low single digits. Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana garners 2 percent while Gov. Susana Martinez of New Mexico trails with 1 percent.
Rand Paul is increasingly faring the best on the Republican side, said Dean Debnam, president of PPP, on Thursday.
While conservatives across the nation have not been pleased with Rubios leadership of the Senate Gang of Eight on immigration reform, it appears not to have hurt him much in Iowa. A solid majority of Republicans -- 54 percent -- see Rubio as favorable while only 14 percent view him as unfavorable. That has not changed much since the February PPP poll when 54 percent saw him as favorable and 13 percent as unfavorable.
Fresh off his stint as Romneys running mate, Ryan is the most popular of the potential candidates among Iowa Republicans, with 68 percent seeing him as favorable and 12 percent as unfavorable. Paul is also in good shape with Iowa Republicans, with 60 percent seeing him as favorable and 15 percent as unfavorable. Bush is seen in a favorable light by 58 percent of Republicans while 17 percent view him as unfavorable. Santorums numbers are somewhat similar, with 57 percent of Republicans seeing the defending champion of the Iowa caucus as favorable and 15 percent viewing him as unfavorable. More Iowa Republicans view Christie as unfavorable -- 27 percent -- than any other candidate, though 45 percent view him as favorable. Despite his low polling numbers, 42 percent of Iowa Republicans have favorable views of Jindal while 12 percent see him as unfavorable.
The poll finds Clinton blowing out the rest of the field on the Democratic side. She takes 71 percent, with Vice President Joe Biden in a very distant second with 12 percent. U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts takes 5 percent followed by U.S. Sen. Kristin Gillibrand of New York and U.S. Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia tied for fourth with 2 percent each. Newark Mayor Cory Booker, currently a U.S. Senate candidate in New Jersey, takes 1 percent, tying him with Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York and Gov. Martin OMalley of Maryland. Former Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana gets less than 1 percent.
This result is no surprise to Debnam. Hillary Clintons had a huge lead in all Democratic polling weve done everywhere, he said.
If Clinton does not run, Biden becomes the Democrat to beat in Iowa. Biden takes 51 percent in that scenario followed by Warren with 16 percent and Cuomo moves up to third with 9 percent. Booker takes fourth with 6 percent while Gillibrand and OMalley both get 2 percent each. Warners support drops back to 1 percent while Schweitzer continues to get less than 1 percent.
If both Clinton and Biden stay out of the race, Warren takes 20 percent followed by Cuomo with 18 percent. Booker takes third with 12 percent while Gillibrand places fourth with 7 percent followed by Gillibrand with 7 percent. OMalley gets the support of 4 percent while Schweitzer moves up to 3 percent and Warner takes 2 percent.
The poll finds Clinton in solid shape in Iowa for the general election as she leads Republican candidates in potential match-ups. Christie does the best against her but he still trails by 7 percent. Clinton beats Ryan by 9 percent, Paul by 11 percent and Rubio by 12 percent. Clinton does best against Bush, beating him by 14 percent.
The poll of 668 Iowa voters was taken from July 5-7 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percent. The sample of 260 Iowa Democrats had a margin of error of +/- 6.1 percent and the sample of 250 Iowa Republicans had a margin of error of +/- 6.2 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at 904-521-3722.
