Even as 2014 enters its final weeks, the political world looks ahead to 2016. While the presidential election will be close in Florida, at first glance, there wont be much in the way of action in the congressional races.
The Cook Report released its first look at the 2016 Senate and congressional races at the end of last week and they are not expecting much in the way of competitive races in Florida. Marco Rubio is listed as likely to keep his seat for the Republicans. That could change if Rubio foregoes a second term to run for president but, if he decides to stay in the Senate, the Republican starts off with the advantage over whichever Democrat decides to take him on.
Five Florida congressional seats caught the Cook Reports attention. Having just beaten Steve Southerland, Gwen Graham is in a race that leans Democratic while Carlos Curbelo, who defeated Joe Garcia in November, is in a seat that leans Republican.
Of the two new faces in the delegation, having prevailed in a bad year for Democrats, Graham should have the easier path in 2016. Democrats think she is a star and will go out of their way to support her at the national level. There arent that many prominent Republican officials in the district though someone can always emerge from the private sector like Southerland did in 2010. Curbelo could pose more of a target and there are already whispers that Annette Taddeo, fresh off her stint as Charlie Crists running mate, could take him on.
Two incumbents are in seats pigeon-holed as likely Republican by the Cook Report. After winning a close special election over Alex Sink earlier in the year, David Jolly didnt face a Democrat this year. The Democrats could get their act together in 2016 but Jolly is proving a hard worker who wont go away easily. Dan Webster could prove an easier target for Democrats. Webster won by the skin of his teeth against Val Demings in 2012. While he did better in November, Webster will be more vulnerable in a presidential year. If Democrats recruit another strong candidate like Demings, Webster could have another fight on his hands.
Patrick Murphy is in a seat that is likely Democratic. To be sure, Republicans outnumber Democrats here and Murphy did narrowly beat Allen West in 2012. But Murphy utterly routed Republican Carl Domino in November despite Republicans doing well across the nation. Murphy is a proven campaigner, a strong fundraiser and works the district hard. He wont be an easy target for Republicans in 2016.
A lot can happen, of course, over two years. But right now, most congressional representatives from Florida have little to fear from the other party come 2016.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis exclusively for Sunshine State News.
