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Politics

Presidential Derby

August 1, 2011 - 6:00pm

A poll released by Quinnipiac University shows that Pennsylvania is shaping up to be a battleground state in the 2012 general election. The poll finds former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, currently the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, leading President Barack Obama, beating the Democrat 44 percent to 42 percent. Obama does better against the rest of the Republican field, beating Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann by 8 points and Texas Gov. Rick Perry by 6 points. Favorite son Rick Santorum -- who represented the Keystone State for 12 years in the U.S. Senate -- is right behind Obama, though the president leads by 2 points ...

While his campaign is struggling at the national level, the poll shows Santorum is a factor in his home states Republican contest. Romney leads with 21 percent but Santorum takes second with 14 percent. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is third with 12 percent, and Bachmann is right behind at 11 percent. Two Texans are next -- Perry with 8 percent and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul with 5 percent,while two Georgians -- Herman Cain and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich -- tie for seventh with 4 percent. Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota takes 2 percent, while former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman is mired at the bottom with 1 percent ...

With the results of this poll, look for talk to increase that Santorum, whose presidential campaign has gotten little traction, will seek a rematch with Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, the man who took his seat in 2006. The weak Republican field lining up against Casey could also be a factor if Santorum chooses to switch races ...

With the Iowa Republican Party holding a straw poll at the end of next week, the candidates continue to double down on the Hawkeye State. Pawlenty, who has a lot riding on the event, named 29 county chairs on Tuesday to help his efforts in Iowa ... Pawlenty is not the only candidate from Minnesota who is going all in for the straw poll. Bachmann announced on Tuesday that her campaign was bringing in some big-name entertainers for the event, including country music icon Randy Travis ... The pack of Republican presidential candidates all opposed the deal on the federal debt ceiling with one prominent exception -- Jon Huntsman. Despite opposing it, more than a few Republicans have jabbed Romney for not being out front and center against it, including former New York Congresswoman Susan Molinari ...

The Obama team will be out in full force when the United Association of Plumbers, Pipefitters, Sprinklerfitters, Welders and HVACR Technicians meets in Las Vegas next week. Jim Messina, Obamas campaign manager, will be speaking and so will U.S. Labor Secretary Hilda Solis and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emmanuel, who had been Obamas chief of staff ... Three Democratic governors will also be speaking at the event -- Neil Abercrombie of Hawaii, Martin OMalley of Maryland and Patrick Quinn of Illinois. Look for the 2016 buzz to grow, especially around OMalley who intends to fight for same-sex marriage in his state come 2012 ... Add billionaire and reality television star Donald Trump to the list of people who think Obama will get a primary challenge from the left in 2012. As of yet, no major candidate has emerged to take Obama on in the primaries, and the clock is ticking ...

While he decided not to enter the Republican presidential primaries, U.S. Sen. John Thune sent up another trial balloon this week, indicating that he would be open to being the vice presidential candidate in 2012 ... Theres been talk that Thune has national ambitions, though historically running and losing as a vice presidential candidate does not lead to the White House. While Palin rocketed to national prominence after being added to the 2008 Republican ticket by John McCain, most losing vice presidential candidates flop when they seek their partys presidential nomination, as did John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, Ed Muskie,and Henry Cabot Lodge. Still, the position can help launch the national careers of otherwise obscure politicians, witness Assistant Secretary of the Navy Franklin D. Roosevelt who was the running mate for James Cox in 1920. Despite coming down with polio soon after, FDR was able to use his vice presidential run to leapfrog over a host of Empire State Democrats on his way to the governor's mansion and then the White House ...

Keep an eye on the Fall 2011 Constitution Party National Committee Meeting and Conference which is being held in Coeur dAlene, Idaho, in early October. They are starting to get a host of conservative speakers assembled, and one of them may end up as the partys presidential nominee in 2012. Speakers include former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore of Alabama, former U.S. Rep. Virgil Goode of Virginia,radio host Sam Bushman, and the 2008 presidential ticket -- pastor Chuck Baldwin and attorney Darrell Castle. While Moore is technically a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, his bid has gone nowhere. He would not be the first GOP hopeful to flirt with the Constitution Party; the likes of Pat Buchanan, former New Hampshire U.S. Sen. Bob Smith and Alan Keyes did, as well. Only Keyes actually ran for the partys presidential nomination but he lost out to Baldwin in 2008.

Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.

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