Noted political pundit Dick Morris has launched his own polling company and took a poll of 700 likely Republican primary voters on June 18 and June 19. The poll had former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts out in front of the pack with 23 percent. Like a number of recent polls, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann placed second but she was tied with a congressional colleague--U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. Bachmann and Paul each stood at 12 percent. There was a three way tie for fourth between former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, businessman Herman Cain and Texas Gov. Rick Perry with 5 percent. Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota took 3 percent, followed by former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania with 2 percent and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman with 1 percent. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 4 percentThe poll had other bad news for Perry--he was not playing well in the South. He stood in fourth with 9 percent, behind Romney with 22 percent, Paul with 13 percent and Bachmann with 10 percentRick Perry shows weakness in the polling that might cause him to reconsider running for president, said Morris. As governor of Texas, he is already well known, particularly in the South. If he cannot produce more than a 5 percent vote share nationally or do better than 9 percent in his region, he is not showing much strengthMorris thought the poll showed Romney doing well since other establishment Republicans were struggling. The establishment Republicans who are Romneys real first round opponents all do very poorly when measured against him, said Morris. While Mitt gets 23 percent of the national vote, Perry gets only 5 percent, Pawlenty 3 percent and Huntsman 1 percent. They will have to do better than that to give Romney a run for the establishment/centrist branch of the GOP primary
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has been keeping the door open to making a second run for the Republican presidential nomination and the buzz will only increase in the middle of July when he heads out to New Hampshire. Giuliani, who downplayed early states like Iowa and New Hampshire in his 2008 bid, will be speaking to the Seacoast Republican Women on July 14...Is Cain making the same mistake that Giuliani did in 2008 by ignoring New Hampshire which is the home of the first primary contest? Probably not--the Granite State looks like it will go strong for Romney who is based in neighboring Massachusetts. Still, the Cain campaign is losing staffers in the state and region who wanted their candidate to put up more of a fight in New Hampshire. Matt Murphy resigned his position as Cains New Hampshire director and Jim Zeiler, who was leading the region for the former Godfathers Pizza CEO, also left the Cain team. While not quite at the same level as all the resignations that have hurt Gingrich in recent weeks, Murphy made it clear that he thought the Cain camp should make more of an effort in New HampshirePawlenty is desperately trying to break through to the top tier of candidates and it simply does not seem to be happening based on the polls and increasingly loud rumors of a weak fundraising quarter. Pawlenty played the foreign policy card on Tuesday, attacking Republicans who were looking to reduce American involvement in international issues
President Barack Obama continues to remain vulnerable on the economy. A poll from McClatchy-Marist poll showed that only 37 percent of voters approve of the presidents management of the economy--the lowest rate he has garnered. The poll found that voters remain disapproving of the way Obama has managed the federal deficit. The poll did have some good news for the White House as 50 percent of those surveyed had favorable views of the president as opposed to 44 percent who did not and most of the voters thought that Obama inherited the bad economyThe Obama campaign is looking to end the second quarter with a major push to reel in campaign funds. Theyre hoping for 450,000 donors who would give the campaign $60 million for the second quarter of 2011...While New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, fresh from signing a law legalizing same sex marriage in the Empire State, is playing down talk about a bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016, speculation is continuing to grow that he will be one of the leading contenders in that election cycle
Ralph Naders camp is back on the attack, calling for a single payer health-care system and attacking the current system as pay or die. Nader has shown no aversion to whacking Obama and could be gearing up for yet another bid at the presidency in 2012...In an upset, Jack Fellure, a Baptist minister from West Virginia, defeated Jim Hedges to be the Prohibition Partys presidential candidate in 2012. Fellure named Mississippi based Rev. Toby Davis to be his vice-presidential candidate. While they have not been relevant in decades, the Prohibition Party is Americas oldest third party having been founded back in 1869. They were also one of the most influential. How many other third parties have led the passage of constitutional amendments? The only time the Prohibition Party ever elected a statewide official was in 1916 when Sidney Catts, ticked about voting irregularities in the Democratic primary, became governor of Florida on the Prohibition lineThe conservative Constitution Party is increasingly putting its efforts in Montana. The state party has re-affiliated with the national organization and Chuck Baldwin, who was the partys presidential candidate back in 2008, moved from Pensacola to Big Sky Country last year. While the resurgent third party should not impact the presidential race, it could impact what could be competitive U.S. Senate, an open congressional seat, the open governors contest and the various state Cabinet races. While Baldwin appears unlikely to make a second presidential bid, no candidate has really emerged to be the partys presidential nominee yet. Of course, Baldwin jumped in less than a month before the 2008 convention and beat Alan Keyes for the nomination.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestaenews.com or at (850) 727-0859
