Democratic gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink is losing her home county, if early voting patterns are any indication.
Hillsborough County reported that 6,562 Republicans cast early ballots compared with 5,836 Democrats. The figures were compiled Thursday. Early voting continues until Saturday.
The Republican edge in Hillsborough is a sharp reversal from 2008, when Democrats swamped early voting sites in the populous west coast county. During that presidential-election year, Democrats held a 68-32 percent advantage over Republicans in early balloting. This year, Republicans are leading at a 53-47 pace there.
Democrats typically favor early voting in Florida, while GOP voters tend to prefer absentee balloting, according to analyses of recent state elections.
This year, however, lower Democratic turnouts for early voting signal an early warning alarm for party candidates, including Sink.
Statewide, through Wednesday, Republicans cast 23,668 more early votes than did Democrats -- even though Florida has 600,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.
While Democrats lag in Sink's home county, Republicans are flocking to cast early ballots in Republican rival Rick Scott's home of Collier County. As of Thursday, 64 percent of early ballots were cast by GOP voters there. That's a significant swing from 48 percent in 2008.
Collier, a heavily Republican county, also reported a surge in early voting during the primary.
"We had 13,000 more early voters, and 98 percent of them were Republican," said Tim Durham of the county's supervisor of elections office.
Even in one of the state's most Democratic counties, Alachua, Republican early voters are closing the gap.
As of the middle of last week, 1,048 Republicans voted early, vs. 1,716 Democrats. Last year, Democrats led early balloting by a 3-to-1 margin.
Alachua Supervisor of Elections Pam Carpenter said Democrats outnumber Republicans 78,125-42,446 in the county that encompasses Gainesville and the University of Florida.
Orange County, the vote-rich battleground county that includes Orlando, is turning redder, too.
As of Thursday, 4,855 Republicans and 4,001 Democrats cast early ballots, reported Linda Tanko, senior deputy supervisor for voter services.
During the same four-day period in 2008, 20,184 Democrats had voted, compared with 7,140 Republicans.
Tanko notes that comparing a midterm election with a presidential year can be misleading because of wide differences in turnout.
But going back to the previous midterm election makes this year's early voting pattern look even more historic for Republicans. In 2006, Democrats carried early voting by 21,362 ballots.
"We were up 23,668 three days into early voting this year," said Republican Party of Florida spokesman Dan Conston.
Still, Conston cautioned that the GOP's early lead may not hold.
"We dont expect to win early voting, but any lead at all is shocking at this point," he said.
Meantime, the GOP is padding its advantage in absentee voting, which was widely credited as a key factor in Scott's victory over Bill McCollum in the Republican gubernatorial primary.
"Thanks to huge enthusiasm and significant voter-turnout operations, Republicans are significantly leading among absentee requests and votes -- far exceeding the margins we won absentee voting by in 2008," Conston said.
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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
