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Politics

Poll Shows Bondi Holds Edge Against Gelber in AG Race

October 12, 2010 - 6:00pm
Republican Pam Bondi holds a steady lead over Democrat Dan Gelber in the race for Florida attorney general, a new Sunshine State News tracking poll shows.
As of Tuesday evening, Bondi led Gelber 50-42. That's a slightly narrower margin than the 51-41 advantage she held on Oct. 6.

The nightly polls, conducted by Voter Survey Service for Sunshine State News, sampled 1,909 likely voters. The margin of error was +/- 2.2 percent.

Jim Lee, president of VSS, said, Bondi's "lock" on Republican voters -- garnering 85 percent of the GOP respondents -- is buttressing her lead.

Bondi also holds hefty margins in North Florida (57-33) and Central Florida (54-39), two regions that combine for roughly two-thirds of the statewide vote.

Gelber holds his home base of South Florida, 52-41, the Sunshine State News Poll reported.

"He has to close the gap in Central Florida" to be competitive, Lee said.

Among independents, Bondi, a former Hillsborough County prosecutor and a tea party favorite, enjoys a modest 47-42 advantage.

With a late primary endorsement from former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Bondi surged past two opponents in the GOP contest.

Likewise, Gelber, a state senator from Miami Beach and a former federal prosecutor, finished strong in the Democratic primary.

Recalling Gelber's primary race against state Sen. Dan Aronberg, Democratic campaign strategist Steve Schale, who is also employed by Gelber, noted that polls showed Gelber with a 2-point lead three weeks before the election, and he ended up winning by nearly 20 points.

This time around, Schale suggested that Bondi's lead "is mostly a reflection of her slightly higher name recognition."

"Both of them have just begun communicating (with voters), and Cabinet races are traditionally late-breaking races," Schale said.

Gelber spokesman Christian Ulvert said the campaign put up its first TV ad Friday.

"Florida voters will have a clear choice between a proven federal prosecutor and someone who has gone to big lobbyists and corporate special interests to tell them she'll be on their side," Ulvert said.

Looking ahead, Bondi spokeswoman Sandi Copes said, "The only poll that matters is Election Day, and we're going to keep working hard, talking to voters about issues that are important to Floridians."

(For a look at this Sunshine State News Poll's crosstabs, click on the attachment below.)

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Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.

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