A poll released Wednesday reveals that Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill McCollum is in deep trouble.
He trails health-care executive Rick Scott, his GOP competitor in the primary, by seven points, and of the four major candidates running overall, he limps in in third place.
Released by Public Policy Polling (PPP) -- a company that generally looks at Democratic races -- the poll reveals the attorney general garnered more than a 50 percent disapproval rating. It shows he did poorly among both Republicans and conservatives.
Neither McCollum nor anyone from his campaign returned Sunshine State News' phone calls Wednesday.
Democratic candidate Alex Sink, on the other hand, who has less than formidable primary opposition, polled at 36 percent, according to PPP. She matched up on top of McCollum, 37 percent to 23 percent; Scott, 36 percent to 30 percent; and independent Bud Chiles, 37 percent to 14 percent.
But the poll is an outlier from other ones taken of the race. Between July 9 and 11, less than a week before the Public Policy Polling survey was taken, Reuters/Ipsos conducted a poll showing the Republicans running stronger -- with Scott leading Sink by a 34-31 margin and the Democrat enjoying the slimmest of leads over McCollum, at 31-30.
The numbers do not reflect any of the other private or public polling reports I have seen at this point, Rick Wilson, a Republican strategist, said on Wednesday about the PPP poll -- though he added he had not seen the full survey.
A Republican consultant who wished to remain anonymous dismissed the general numbers, insisting that primary voters will rally behind the eventual GOP nominee.
I think Sinks biggest challenge is it's a tough year for Democrats, the strategist said, noting that the Republicans have run ads against each other -- and have not yet focused on Sink.
Sinks numbers in the Public Policy Polling survey are being helped by the fact the Democrat is way ahead of both McCollum and Scott on favorability, though most Florida voters -- 54 percent -- do not know enough about her to have an opinion. The poll found that 24 percent had a favorable view of Sink compared to 22 percent who saw her in an unfavorable light.
The PPP poll found that Floridians had much harsher views of the two leading Republican candidates. Scott is seen in an unfavorable light by 41 percent of the poll while 23 percent viewed him favorably. More than a third of those surveyed, 36 percent, did not know enough about him to have an opinion.
Despite his three decades in public office, or perhaps because of them, McCollum did even worse, with his unfavorable numbers at 51 percent. The poll found only 16 percent of Floridians viewed the attorney general favorably, while 33 percent didn't know enough to have an opinion of him.
McCollum was also sinking with voters who backed Republican presidential candidate John McCain in 2008. While Scott was seen as favorable by 36 percent of McCain backers and unfavorable by 27 percent, they saw McCollum in much more unflattering terms -- 24 percent favorable compared to 42 percent unfavorable.
Conservative voters also had a low opinion of McCollum, with 23 percent seeing him in a favorable light while 40 percent saw him unfavorably. Scott did better with these key voters in the Republican primary, with 36 percent of conservatives viewing him favorably and 26 percent unfavorably.
Even among Republican voters, the poll found McCollum was viewed unfavorably. Only 27 percent of GOP voters saw him in favorable terms compared to 40 percent who saw him in unfavorable terms. However, Scott has 34 percent of Republicans who see him favorably and 30 percent view him unfavorably.
The Scott campaign took some solace in the poll, arguing it showed their candidate was in good shape for the Republican primary election.
While we dont believe that Rick Scott is actually trailing Alex Sink in the general election, what is clear from this poll and numerous others is that Rick Scott is the only Republican candidate with a chance to win the governorship, said Joe Kildea, a spokesman for the Scott campaign. Bill McCollum is upside down -- holding a net negative image among GOP voters. Rick Scott is a net positive among GOP voters.
Of more concern for McCollum is his favorable to unfavorable ratio among independents -- with only a dismal 9 percent viewing the attorney general in a favorable light while 57 view him unfavorably. The Republican strategist said these numbers would doom McCollum in the November general election.
Chiles remains unknown to most Florida voters. The independent candidate is seen as favorable by 12 percent and unfavorable by 18 percent, but 70 percent of those polled did not have an opinion of him.
The poll of 900 Floridians taken between July 16-18 has a margin of error of +/- 3.26 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859. Reach Nancy Smith at nsmith@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
