In the upcoming midterm elections, Republicans in Florida are playing with house money.
According to Marian Johnson, senior vice president of political strategy for the Florida Chamber of Commerce, the national frustration with the Democratic Party and the jobless recovery are seeping into state races.
"Have you met anybody who's happy? Voters are just -- they're angry," Johnson said Tuesday at the Chamber's annual Future of Florida Forum.
That's good news for Florida Republicans challenging Democratic incumbents for U.S. House seats, but also for GOP candidates in the Florida House and Senate, where they may increase their already strong hold on both chambers by picking up a few seats. Polls also show Republican candidates leading in all of the Cabinet races.
In fact, the only statewide race that is too close to call is for the governor's mansion, with Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Alex Sink flipping positions in the polls on a weekly basis.
"This race is really neck-and-neck right now," Johnson said.
The nature of that race and others has changed over the course of time, especially after the primaries when candidates really begin to focus on their general election opponent and try to frame the debate.
Often, that is done with negative ads, to the chagrin of most voters. But there's a simple reason they keep popping up during election season.
"They work. And that's sad, but you won't see a negative ad from a candidate who is winning," Johnson said.
Campaigns, however, cannot conjure ideal situations for their candidates, and often must react to events as they arise.
The three-way race for Florida's U.S. Senate seat, which has caught much national attention, was led by Gov. Charlie Crist for the greater part of the summer. The former Republican, who bailed on the GOP for an independent bid for Senate in order to avoid certain defeat in the primary, was on TV during the oil spill response -- a daily reminder of executive leadership, Johnson said.
As that crisis abated, she said, and the public saw less of Crist, Marco Rubio, the Republican candidate, was able to use TV ads to get his message out there to shape the campaign. Rubio now has a comfortable lead over Crist and the Democratic nominee, U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek.
As favorable as the political landscape is right now for Republicans, Johnson said she is expecting something to happen in the remaining three weeks that may alter the outcome on Nov. 2.
"There's got to be an October surprise coming. (Democrats) aren't going to give up without a fight for it," she said.
But the effect of any "October surprise" in Florida could be minimal. Early voting starts on Monday, and many voters will have already cast their ballots before any salient event could change their vote. The early and absentee ballot votes have changed the way campaigns are run and shortened the campaign season.
"Really the election process starts Monday. That's critical for candidates to be aware of," Johnson said.
Reach Gray Rohrer at grohrer@sunshinestatenews.com, or at (850) 727-0859.
