There are 16 months before the 2012 general election, and Republican voters are just beginning to meet their presidential candidates, but both parties are already staking out the territory where the race for the White House will be won: swing voters in swing states.
With its 29 electoral votes, Florida is seen by many as the grand prize of all the swing states, and its diverse population means both Republicans and Democrats have opportunities and obstacles to overcome in the state.
President Barack Obama started to shore up Hispanic support early on, visiting Puerto Rico last month in an effort to boost his support among the 847,500 voters who have flocked to Florida from the island. Many of them have sought out jobs in Central Florida along the Interstate 4 corridor, a haven of swing voters perennially targeted by national campaigns.
Meanwhile, Republicans are jumping on perceived chinks in Obamas foreign policy that are apt to upset key demographics in Florida -- Cubans and Jewish voters.
A Gallup poll released this week showed Obamas support among Jewish voters remained strong at 60 percent in June, but was a decline of 8 points from May.
Some observers pointed to Obamas May 19 speech -- urging Israel to withdraw to its 1967 borders, including some land swaps, as a way to generate a two-state solution to the protracted conflict with Palestine --as the reason for the slide. Republicans blasted the speech and are hoping that it could dent Obamas support among Floridas 614,000 Jewish population.
Republican National Committee spokesperson Ryan Tronovitch said that that, along with Obamas controversial policies toward Cuba, could prove to be critical in a close race in Florida.
Gallup, however, thought the Jewish voter poll numbers mirrored Obamas approval rating decline among the general population, coming down from the bump he received following the killing of Osama bin Laden on May 1.
Still, Tronovitch noted that while Jewish voters may yet back Obama for the most part in 2012, he could still lose support among key donors, impacting his fundraising efforts.
Its happening in other states. President Obama recently asked (former) Governor Corzine in New Jersey to help him win back some donors and Im sure itll be happening in Florida, Tronovitch said.
Even more troublesome for Obamas re-election effort could be his policies relaxing travel restrictions to Cuba. Democrats are hoping to make inroads among the normally Republican voting bloc of Cubans in South Florida, but Tronovitch highlighted a piece from The Hill last week, detailing the differences between Obama and Democratic National Committee Chairwoman and U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz over Cuba policy.
Whereas Wasserman-Schultz is a staunch advocate of the U.S. embargo of the communist-controlled island, Obama has looked to ease trade sanctions on Cuba.
These are the people where he might have won last time, but theyre beginning to see that his rhetoric doesnt match up with his policies, Tronovitch said.
Reach Gray Rohrer at grohrer@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
