An optimistic report that foresees high-speed rail systems driving high-dollar growth and jobs in hub cities nationwide -- including Orlando -- is being assailed by one national critic as "absurd" and skewed.
Wendell Cox, an Illinois-based transportation and urban planning expert who served on the Los Angeles Transportation Commission and national Amtrak reform council, doubts that the proposed high-speed rail systems will benefit such hub cities anything like as much as claimed by the U.S. Conference of Mayors.
The mayors' report, now 2 weeks old, is being touted in Florida as evidence that a planned high-speed rail system will reap big benefits for Orlando, generating thousands of jobs and billions of dollars for the city. If operated at top speed with lines extending from Tampa to Miami, the rail sysetm could produce as many as 27,453 jobs, $1.15 billion in wages, and $2.94 billion in increased sales of goods and services by 2035, the report asserts.
If the Orlando train is running at a speed of only 168 to 186 mph by 2035, it could still generate 19,935 jobs, $883.5 million in wages, $2.1 billion in new sales, the report claims. An additional benefit of $1.2 billion in Gross Regional Product (GRP) results from subtracting the cost of materials and labor from the total sales value of goods and services, the report asserts. If the system is running at peak speed of 220 mph, it could generate 27,453 jobs, $2.93 billion in sales, and $1.7 billion in value-added GRP.
Gains in hub cities will be relatively modest in the early years, the report concedes, But it claims these will increase as mixed-use development near train stations occurs later. The rail systems also will offer an efficient mode of travel for commuters, boost business efficiency, and help expand tourism and labor markets, the report asserts.
Those are unreasonable expectations, insists Cox. Residents and developers are not going to pay for mixed-use development just to be closer to a train station, he said. The report claims that such development will be of particular benefit to the Chicago-based high-speed rail line that will link to St. Louis and other midwestern cities.
This is something that has never happened anywhere, Cox said.
Nor do high-speed rail systems sufficiently save time or money for commuters, Cox said. It takes time for commuters to get to stations, purchase tickets, and wait for trains. When compared to travel by car, trains do not save time, he said. What's more, commuters often use cars to get to and from a station, he noted.
High-speed rail tickets also cost too much, Cox said, and the system wont bring more tourists to Orlando or Tampa. If a car gets 20 miles per gallon, a family can make the trip on a tank of gas costing $30 or so, he said. "High-speed rail fares are far higher than the cost of driving."
Still, Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer and other mayors appear unprepared to put the brakes on the high-speed hype machine. The Conference of Mayors' report, produced by the Economic Development Research Group and sponsored by Siemens, an international corporation that builds trains and light rail systems, boasts that high-speed rail networks serving the hub cities of Los Angeles, Chicago, Albany, and Orlando could generate a total of $18.7 billion for businesses, $7.8 billion in wages and 145,500 new jobs by 2035.
I think that the numbers the report put forward are pretty solid, said Dyer, a Democrat who has been a vocal supporter of high-speed rail and a related Central Florida commuter rail approved last year.
Dyer said that the high-speed rail, based at Orlando International Airport, may not inspire more development, but the commuter rail will. The high-speed rail will help with infill development in Ybor City in Tampa at its other end, he said.
It will certainly save them time and convenience, Dyer said. Since the high-speed rail is to be based at the airport, it will make the trip between Central Florida and the Tampa Bay area more palatable to tourists, he added. The trip will take 54 minutes on a high-speed rail, but it takes 1.5 hours by car.
Floridas high-speed rail network received a promise of a $1.25 billion down payment in federal stimulus money on the initial 85-mile-long, 168-mph leg connecting Orlando to Tampa by 2015. That's only half the project's anticipated total cost of $2.5 billion. Planners hope to eventually expand the line to include a 230-mile-long, 220 mph link to Miami.
All told, 13 high-speed rail projects have received a total of $8 billion in federal stimulus money.
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Here is the Conference of Mayors report on the growth of rail hub cities. For more information, visit here.
Los Angeles 220 mph
2035 Employment Jobs 54,056
2035 Output (Sales) $m per year $7,519
2035GRP $m per year $4,340
2035 Wages $m per year $2,977
Chicago 110 mph 220 mph
2035 Employment Jobs 18,374 42,200
2035 Output (Sales) $m per year $2,577.8 $6,087.3
2035 GRP $m per year $1,489.7 $3,554.8
2035 Wages $m per year $1,033.0 $2,466.6
Orlando 168/186 mph (Orlando/Tampa) 220 mph (Orlando/Miami)
2035 Employment Jobs 19,935 27,453.0
2035 Output (Sales) $m per year $2,128.1 $2,942.4
2035GRP $m per year $1,230.7 $1,706.1
2035 Wages $m per year $833.5 $1,155.8
Albany 79/90 mph 110 mph 220 mph
2035 Employment Jobs 3,184 4,703 21,361
2035 Output (Sales) $m per year $357.9 $534.4 $2,485.6
2035GRP $m per year $205.9 $308.4 $1,444.6
2035 Wages $m per year $158.7 $238.5 $1,118.2
Reach Alex Tiegen at atiegen@sunshinestatenews.com, or at (561) 329-5389.
