In 1968, Richard Nixon changed the Electoral College map by appealing to the Silent Majority of American voters: law-abiding, white, working class voters in the Great Lakes and the South who had backed Democrats for decades.
Nixons win ended FDRs New Deal coalition which won seven of the nine previous presidential elections and set the stage for the majorities that carried Republicans to victory for years to come.
The GOP has lost its mojo in recent presidential elections as Bill Clinton and Barack Obama found a way to assemble their own majorities twice and Al Gore did beat George W. Bush in the popular vote, but Republicans have an opportunity to reclaim the electoral map in 2016. Whoever the Republicans nominate for president in 2016 will have the chance to follow Nixons example and carve out a new electoral map. Nixons Silent Majority resulted as a reaction against an overly expanded federal government under Lyndon Johnson, race riots, increased violence at home, the counterculture and the anti-war movement.
Just like LBJ, Obama has set the stage for a major Republican comeback. Obamas recent executive action on immigration will rile up the millions of immigrants who have come to America legally and have done everything by the book as they hope to become citizens. Many naturalized citizens who played by the rules will also turn against Obama and his party for this. Some of these naturalized citizens are in states that will be important in 2016 and down the road like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona and Florida.
The immigration action will also play poorly with blue-collar whites, never the biggest fans of Obama in the first place even though they often vote for the Democrats. Many of these Americans are feeling left behind in the changing economy and will see Obamas action as leading to more competition. If Republicans want to regain the presidency, the GOP needs to do well in the Rust Belt, in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin -- exactly the places where blue-collar whites remain a major factor.
Republicans will have to walk a fine line on how they present their opposition to Obama on immigration. Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media will try to present opposition to Obama as the result of racism. With the wrong line of attack, Republicans will cut off any chance they have of reeling in Hispanic votes in the future. Pete Wilsons support of Proposition 187 helped him win a second term in 1994 but doomed the GOP in California, the cornerstone of the coalition that propelled Nixon and Ronald Reagan to the White House. Remember, plenty of Hispanic families went through the process to become citizens -- and now see those who broke the rules move to the head of the line thanks to Obamas action.
Obamas missteps -- the continued unpopularity of his health-care law, the uneasy economic recovery, the continued problems in the Middle East -- helped Republicans take the Senate earlier this month. Now, Obama is offering Republicans a gamechanger on immigration that could help the GOP for years to come in presidential elections. If the GOP finds the right messenger in 2016, Obamas action could hurt Democrats for years to come as immigration shifts swing states toward the Republicans.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
