A poll released by Quinnipiac University on Thursday morning found President Barack Obama appears headed for a tough fight to keep the Sunshine State in the Democratic column in 2012, while former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich holds a solid lead over his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination in Florida.
Former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts leads Obama in Florida in a potential general election match-up, taking 45 percent while the Democrat incumbent garners 42 percent. Obama does better against Gingrich, winning 46 percent while the former congressional leader is right behind him with 44 percent.
While he carried Florida in 2008, voters in the Sunshine State --which continues to have a higher unemployment rate than the national average during the Obama administration --continue to sour on the president. Fifty-four percent of those surveyed disapprove of Obamas performance in the White House, while 41 percent approve of it. A majority of those surveyed -- 51 percent -- do not think Obama deserves a second term, while 44 percent think he does.
Obama is also upside down in Florida, with 47 percent seeing him favorably and 48 percent viewing him unfavorably. Romney does better -- 39 percent view him as favorable, while 28 percent see the former Massachusetts governor in an unfavorable light. Gingrich is upside down -- 34 percent see him as favorable, while 38 percent think he is unfavorable.
Both of the leading Republican candidates get more marks on the economy than Obama. Forty-nine percent of the Florida voters surveyed think Romney will do a better job in managing the economy, while 41 percent feel Obama would do better. Forty-seven percent think Gingrich could handle the economy better while 44 percent think Obama can do a better job.
Taking 35 percent, Gingrich leads the Republican field in Florida, followed by Romney with 22 percent. Businessman Herman Cain -- who pulled out Saturday while the poll was being compiled -- and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas are tied in third with 8 percent. U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and Gov. Rick Perry of Texas take 4 percent each, while former Gov. Jon Huntsman and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania trail behind with 2 percent apiece.
When the race is narrowed to the two leading Republicans, Gingrich prevails with 52 percent while Romney takes 34 percent.
"Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is no longer just the flavor of the month since his boomlet has now stretched from November into December and voting begins in Iowa in less than four weeks," said PeterBrown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, on Thursday. "The suspension of Herman Cain's campaign is unlikely to hurt Gingrich and might help him vis-a-vis Romney by reducing the number of candidates courting tea party voters.
"Gingrich certainly has the momentum on his side and is peaking at the right moment, but Romney has the edge in money and organization, which can be important especially if the primary race turns out to be a long-drawn-out affair," added Brown. "It is worth remembering also that four years ago at this time, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani was the Republican leader.
Brown noted that Romney could be helped in Florida by his large war chest.
Money might be more important here than in any of the early primary states, Brown said. That's because of the large number of expensive media markets where television ads cost a pretty penny. Romney's large lead over the field when it comes to cash reserves could be very important in deciding the outcome in Florida.
The survey of 1,226 Florida voters was taken from Nov. 28-Dec. 5 with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent. This includes a sample of 509 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
