With Republicans routing Democrats across the country on Election Day, speculation has been building throughout November that President Barack Obama will face a challenge for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2012.
Several names have been kicked around by the national media as potential challengers to Obama, including U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, outgoing U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin and U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio. But none of the potential candidates has done much to launch a challenge and some of them have insisted they do not intend to run against Obama for the Democratic nod in 2012.
While Obama may be vulnerable in 2012, a new poll found that he remains popular with the Democratic base.
A poll by Quinnipiac University released on Monday shows that there is little support among the Democratic rank and file for a primary challenge to Obama. The poll found that while 64 percent of Democrats did not want to see anyone challenging Obama in the primaries, more than a quarter of those surveyed -- 27 percent -- were open to a primary challenge.
"The Democratic base remains squarely behind President Barack Obama when it comes to his re-election, said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, on Monday.
The poll of 2,424 registered voters, which was taken between Nov. 8-15, had a margin of error of +/- 2 percent.
Of the four names most kicked around in the press to challenge Obama, Clinton would probably have the strongest appeal based on her 2008 campaign for the Democratic nomination. However, she has repeatedly expressed no interest in challenging Obama. On Sunday,during an appearance on Fox News Sunday, Clinton again insisted that she was not planning to challenge Obama in 2012 and that she was done with seeking electoral office.
Staffers for Dean, a favorite of progressives after his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004 and his tenure as chairman of the Democratic National Committee, have also insisted that he has no intention of challenging Obama in 2012. However, Dean remains active through the Democracy for America PAC and has been critical of Obamas handling of a number of issues including possibly extending tax cuts backed by George W. Bush in 2001 and 2003 and continuing American military operations in Iraq.
Feingold, a long-time darling of national progressives, lost his bid for a fourth term on Election Day, taking 47 percent to Republican candidate Ron Johnsons 52 percent. While Feingold has had his differences with the Obama administration -- he was one of three Democrats to vote against confirming Timothy Geithner to be Treasury Secretary -- he has shown little signs of running for president in 2012.
Kucinich, who ran for the Democratic nomination in 2004 and 2008, said back in August that he would challenge Obama despite his differences with a number of the administrations policies oninternational affairs, the economy, unemployment and the trade deficit.
While potential candidates have shown little interest in taking on Obama, their backers have created webpages and Facebook sites to encourage them to take on the president in 2012.
Besides the polls, potential candidates thinking about running against Obama can look at history, which offers them little solace. While Pat Buchanan surprised America with his strong showing against then-President George H.W. Bush in the 1992 New Hampshire primary and Eugene McCarthy did well there against LBJ in 1968, most primary challenges against incumbent presidents fall flat. Teddy Kennedy and Jerry Brown failed to knock off Jimmy Carter in 1980. Despite never having won an election as president or vice president, Gerald Ford managed to hold off Ronald Reagan in 1976. FDR crushed a number of members of his administration who looked to stop him from having a third term in 1940. While he lost a number of contests, the Republican establishment backed William Howard Taft in 1912 over former President Theodore Roosevelt. Despite being one of the most popular Republicans of his generation facing an unpopular president, James G. Blaine was routed when he took on President Benjamin Harrison in 1892.
There have been a handful of exceptions, but most of them have involved presidents in the White House who came to the office through the death of their predecessor. The Whigs rejected Millard Fillmore for Gen. Winfield Scott in 1852 and the Republicans turned away from Chester A. Arthur to back Blaine in 1884.
The one exception was James Buchanan who defeated an incumbent elected president in 1856 for the Democratic presidential nomination. Buchanan, who served as minister to Great Britain under President Franklin Pierce, came home and won the Democratic nomination after his main rivals -- Pierce and Stephen Douglas -- were damaged by being involved in passing the Kansas-Nebraska Act.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
