A Quinnipiac University poll unveiled Thursday, on the president's birthday, finds that Barack Obama is upside down in Florida -- and losing ground and momentum in the Sunshine State.
While a poll released by Quinnipiac in late May found 51 percent of Floridians approving his performance compared to 43 percent who did not, the new one finds 51 percent now disapproving of him, as opposed to 44 who approve.
"President Barack Obama's numbers in the key swing state of Florida have gone south in the last two months, said Peter Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. The debt ceiling deal is not making any difference in that decline and any bounce he got from the bin Laden operation is long since gone.
Fifty percent of those surveyed said that Obama does not deserve another term in the White House, while 42 percent think he should be re-elected. Once again, compared to the May poll, Obama took a step back in the Sunshine State. In May, 47 percent thought Obama should win another term in 2012 and 46 percent opposed it.
Brown notes that Obama is losing ground among independent voters in Florida. The president's drop-off is huge among independent voters who now disapprove almost 2-1.
While independent voters had been split on Obama back in May, in the new poll only 33 percent of them approve of the presidents performance, while 61 percent disapprove.
Despite these numbers, the president tied former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, the leading Republican candidate in the race, with both men garnering 44 percent of the vote in a poll taken Aug. 1 and 2. In a survey done before a deal was reached on the federal debt ceiling, taken July 27 through July 31, Obama beat Romney 46 percent to 41 percent.
The president retained a solid lead over the other candidates after the debt ceiling deal was reached. Obama beat Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, who has yet to enter the race, 44 percent to 39 percent. The president led U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann by 12 points, taking 50 percent to her 38 percent. Obama crushed former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who has not officially entered the race, beating her by 19 points.
Romney, who came in second in the Sunshine State in the 2008 primary, leads the field of Republican hopefuls with 23 percent. Perry places second with 13 percent, while Palin and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas tie for third with 9 percent. Businessman Herman Cain is in fourth with 8 percent. Bachmanns recent surge in national and some state polls has not been reflected in Florida, where she records 6 percent.
"Governor Rick Perry's stock is rising even before he announces whether he'll run," said Brown. "U.S. Representative Michele Bachmann, who had been surging in other states, is stalled."
The rest of the field lags behind. Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich took 4 percent, followed by former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota with 3 percent. Despite basing his campaign in Orlando, Jon Huntsman, the former governor of Utah and ambassador to China, took only 1 percent in the Sunshine State, tying him with former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania. U.S. Rep. Thad McCotter of Michigan took less than 1 percent.
The poll found that Florida voters back the debt ceiling deal, with 50 percent approving it and 37 percent opposing it. Only 2 percent back it strongly, while 18 percent say they're angry about it. Thirty-six percent of those surveyed say Obama acted in their best interest in the deal; 32 percent said that about U.S. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, while 12 percent felt that about Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.
The poll of 674 registered voters was taken from July 27-31, before the deal was reached, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percent. The poll of 743 registered voters was taken Aug. 1 and 2, after the deal was agreed to, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percent. The total poll of 1,417 registered voters was taken from July 27-Aug. 2. It included 510 Republicans and had a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or at (850) 727-0859.
