Florida's newly drawn 10th Congressional District includes Disney World, but Democrats are stuck in Fantasy Land if they think they can beat GOP Rep. Daniel Webster, Republicans say.
The district, previously represented by Democrat Alan Grayson, turned redder with redistricting. Voters in the district, which includes portions of Orange, Lake and Polk counties, voted for John McCain over Barack Obama by a margin of 52 percent to 47 percent and went for Republican Rick Scott over Alex Sink 52 percent to 44 percent in the 2010 gubernatorial election.
"It got a lot better for Webster," said Nat Sillin of the Republican National Congressional Committee. "The district went from +2 to +7" for the GOP in terms of voting performance.
But the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is undaunted. Touting retired Orlando Police Chief Val Demings as one of the party's best prospects for a take-back, the DCCC believes Webster is vulnerable.
"Demings is one of our top candidates. She's out-raising Webster and she's getting support from Democratic leaders in Congress," said DCCC spokeswoman Stephanie Formas.
Clearing the field, DCCC chairman Steve Israel wrote a fundraising letter for the first-time candidate and enrolled her in the national party's "Red to Blue" program, which targets key congressional races across the country.
Demings is a very different opponent for Webster. The antithesis of the far-left and voluble Grayson, Demings presents a more centrist, businesslike style. Unlike most Democrats, she speaks freely and comfortably about her faith as an active member of the African Methodist Episcopal Church.
The Jacksonville native's law-and-order credentials are in order as a big-city police chief (her husband, Jerry, is sheriff of Orange County, by the way). The mother of three even rides a Harley-Davidson.
"The Republicans aren't going to be able to 'liberal' her up," one political observer said on background.
And then there's the money. Demings outraised Webster in both the third and fourth quarters, $190,000 to $140,000 and$240,000 to $180,000.
If Demings has a problem, it may be geographic. Much of her home base of Orlando lies outside CD 10 -- a potential impediment to gaining name recognition. Privately, some of her supporters hope pending challenges will yield boundaries more friendly to the Democrats.
But even if the lines stand as drawn, only 56 percent of the voters in the new district are currently represented by Webster. So he has some introducing of his own to do.
Though Webster is neither a prolific fundraiser nor a particularly enthusiastic campaigner, he will prevail, predicts Republican strategist Brian Graham, of Dixie Strategies.
"I expect it will be extremely difficult to unseat him in 2012 unless, of course, he pulls a Grayson and goes crazy, Graham said.
And going "crazy" isn't in Webster's repertoire. The former state House speaker and state Senate majority leader is a level-headed conservative who remained unfazed in the face of Grayson's unrelenting attacks two years ago. He stayed unruffled and on-point during town hall meetings that were regularly disrupted by his opponents.
The Democrats believe that a less polarizing candidate like Demings can lure back independent voters who abandoned Grayson in 2010. But much of that calculus depends on Democrats rebounding this year -- and Obama's name at the top of the ballot remains problematic as long as his poll numbers remain soft here.
A campaign spokeswoman for Webster, who was outspent nearly 4-to-1 by Grayson in the last election, said in a statement:
"During his short time in Washington, Congressman Webster has been working every day to promote policies that will create jobs, get our fiscal house in order and find responsible solutions to our spending problems.
"We are looking forward to running a strong, honest campaign based upon the issues that matter to Central Florida voters, utilizing the same principles of integrity, fiscal accountability and personal responsibility that helped us defeat Rep. Alan Grayson by more than 18 points in 2010."
Contact Kenric Ward at kward@sunshinestatenews.com or at (772) 801-5341.
