Tuesdays gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey arent exactly the best places to gain insights on how Florida will go in 2014 but there are lessons to be learned there.
Chris Christie utterly routed Democrat Barbara Buono in New Jersey. But Buono actually edged Christie with voters younger than 30, 51 percent to 49 percent.While that may have only been a speed bump to Christies big win, its telling that, even in a noncompetitive contest, younger voters backed the Democrat.
Voters under 30 swung away from Republicans in Virginia. Bob McDonnell carried 54 percent of voters under 30 in 2009 but fellow Republican Ken Cuccinelli could only muster 40 percent of them. Terry McAuliffe took 45 percent of voters under 30, only 1 percent better than Democrats did in 2009 against McDonnell.But, while he took less than 7 percent of all voters, Libertarian Robert Sarvis pulled 15 percent of voters under 30.
As these elections remind us, younger voters are often liberal and libertarian on social issues which could come in play in Florida next year. Florida Republicans, led by Pam Bondi, and Democrats are already battling over a proposed state constitutional amendment on medical marijuana use that could be on the November ballot in 2014.
Trial lawyer and big-time Democratic fundraiser John Morgan is spearheading the effort to get the medical marijuana amendment in front of the voters. Of course, Charlie Crist, who has moved from a Republican to having no party affiliation to now being a Democrat in the last three years, is the front-runner to win his new partys nomination to challenge Rick Scott in 2014. As anyone who drives across Floridas highways can attest, Crist also works for Morgans law firm. You cant miss Crists smiling, tanned face on billboards scattered throughout the Sunshine State.
Marijuana legalization is an issue that rallies young voters which could help Crist and other Democrats in Florida. At the end of 2012, Quinnipiac University took a national poll that found 67 percent of voters under 30 favor legalization. Support for legalization fell dramatically with older groups.
Crists team -- from Morgan on down -- know what young voters can do in Florida. Look at the results from November 2012. Mitt Romney beat out Barack Obama with voters older than 30. Fifty-two percent of those voters backed Romney while 47 percent went for Obama.
But Obama carried Florida voters younger than 30 in a landslide. Obama took 66 percent of these voters in 2012, 5 percent better than his already strong showing in 2008. Romney took 32 percent, less than a third of Floridians under 30.
Obamas strength with younger voters allowed him to edge Romney in Florida in November. You had better believe every political strategist and campaign operative in Florida took notes.
Younger voters are pretty notorious for sitting out off-year elections. But, as Buonos and Sarvis strength with voters under 30 shows, younger voters often go liberal and libertarian on social issues. They will be out in force if theres a marijuana legalization amendment on the ballot -- and Crist or whoever the Democrats nominate to take on Scott will reap the benefits.
Even if the Republicans try a bait and switch tactic, much like they did against the Fair District Amendments in 2010, it might not help here. Their best bet is to ensure theres nothing even close to a medical marijuana amendment on the ballot in 2014. This helps explain why Bondi is fighting Morgan tooth and nail on the proposed amendment. Expect Republicans to examine Morgans petition closely as they try to toss it off the ballot.
Tallahassee political writer Jeff Henderson wrote this analysis piece exclusively for Sunshine State News.
