The poll from Saint Leo University Polling Institute shows Curbelo taking 46 percent while Garcia garners 42 percent.
Congressman Garcia is in a weaker position than he may have hoped for with less than a month to go in the campaign, said Frank Orlando, a political science instructor at Saint Leo University. Curbelo, the Republican challenger, can take satisfaction in knowing that over twice as many voters view him as strongly favorable than strongly unfavorable.
Theres still time for Garcia to make a move, but he must court independent voters, Orlando added. Although demographics and a gradual shift in Cuban political identity are making the district more Democratic, Garcia must also win a greater share of Republican votes, a hallmark of his successful 2012 campaign.
The poll finds President Barack Obama could be hurting Garcia in this South Florida district. Half of the voters surveyed -- 50 percent -- disapprove of Obamas performance in the White House while 48 percent approve of it. Asked if they want a congressman who backs Obama, 47 percent say no while 45 percent prefer a candidate who has the presidents back.
As the incumbent, (Garcia) pulling only 42 percent of support is less desirable, but the bigger issue is that hes running 8 percentage points behind Charlie Crist, his partys nominee for governor, said Orlando. This is a district where Garcia carried 54 percent of the vote in 2012, and where President Obama beat Mitt Romney by 7 percentage points. While each district has its quirks, winning a district with this profile would help Republicans feel confident of increasing their advantage in the U.S. House of Representatives in November.
With both sides going on the attack, 63 percent of the voters say they have heard about how Garcias staff has been tangled in voter fraud scandals which led to the congressmans former chief of staff doing time in jail. Less than half of those surveyed -- 46 percent -- have heard about Curbelos work as a lobbyist for a casino company.
Congressman Garcia appears to be weighed down by voters' knowledge of his former campaign manager being investigated for fraud, Orlando said. This is ironic, as controversy surrounding Garcias opponent in 2012, former U.S. Congressman David Rivera, R-Fla., contributed to Garcias strong electoral showing.
The poll of 400 likely voters was taken from Oct. 1-6 and had a margin of error of +/- 5 percent. More than an eighth -- 54 of the 400 voter interviews -- were conducted in Spanish.
Reach Kevin Derby at kderby@sunshinestatenews.com or follow him on Twitter: @KevinDerbySSN
